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We both are riding high after some big wins by our teams – plus the Lakers winning the bubble championship – and with both our teams hitting the bye, we wanted to take a moment to see where the league stands with between the have and have-nots.
2021 – Week 10 Recap – Episode 11 – The Stakehouse Sports Podcast
Barrel Wagers & Whiskey
- A barrel wager is a prediction in which we’re so confident we’d wager everything we own… but that if we get it wrong we’d be left wearing nothing but a barrel.
- The Whiskey of the Week:
- Crater Lake Straight American Rye Whiskey from Crater Lake Spirits
- Distilled in Bend, OR
- Distillers notes: Crater Lake Rye Whiskey hopes to revive the tradition of these small family brands that were lost during Prohibition. Crafted from 100% rye grain and pure Cascade Mountain water, the character of our rye is rich with deep toffee notes and a peppery spice that defines true American rye whiskey.
- Paul – Falcons to cover the -1 spread vs the Panthers
- I figured the Falcons would come out on fire with their backs against the wall, knowing a loss would drop them to 0-5 and likely cost their head coach his job
- And they were playing at home against a division foe in the Panthers – even with some fans in the stands for the first time during this COVID season – even more motivation!
- Couldn’t lose this one, right? RIGHT?
- WRONG – Panthers dominated the game and won going away 23-16
- Dan Quinn (and the GM) did get fired – guess they didn’t care that much whomp whomp
- Chris – Steelers to cover the -7.5 against the Eagles
- If you had told me that the Eagles would score 29 points, I definitely would have picked a different game.
- My wager was saved by a career game from Chase Claypool who had 4 TDs including one with just 3 minutes to go to put the game away.
- Chris is now ahead with a 2-3 record and Paul is a half-barrel behind at 1-3-1.
Highlights and lowlights:
It was another feast of famine week for the crowd in week 5.
Bagels – Carb city – 5 bagels
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers-Chicago Bears (3.5), total: 44.5; 19-20, Chicago Bears win, Chicago Bears cover (-1), Under 44.5 (39)
- Crowd: 26.29-21.71; Tampa Bay Buccaneers win, Tampa Bay Buccaneers cover (4.57), Over 44.5 (48)
- Buffalo Bills-Tennessee Titans (3), total: 53; 16-42, Tennessee Titans win, Tennessee Titans cover (-26), Over 53 (58)
- Crowd: 24.57-20.43; Buffalo Bills win, Buffalo Bills cover (4.14), Under 53 (45)
- Las Vegas Raiders-Kansas City Chiefs (-11.5), total: 54.5; 40-32, Las Vegas Raiders win, Las Vegas Raiders cover (8), Over 54.5 (72)
- Crowd: 20.43-32; Kansas City Chiefs win, Kansas City Chiefs cover (-11.57), Under 54.5 (52.43)
- Miami Dolphins-San Francisco 49ers (-8), total: 50.5; 43-17, Miami Dolphins win, Miami Dolphins cover (26), Over 50.5 (60)
- Crowd: 18.71-27.14; San Francisco 49ers win, San Francisco 49ers cover (-8.43), Under 50.5 (45.86)
- Indianapolis Colts-Cleveland Browns (-1), total: 49.5; 23-32, Cleveland Browns win, Cleveland Browns cover (-9), Over 49.5 (55)
- Crowd: 23.57-22.14; Indianapolis Colts win, Indianapolis Colts cover (1.43), Under 49.5 (45.71)
Trifectas – 4 trifectas to balance the bagels
- Arizona Cardinals-New York Jets (7), total: 47.5; 30-10, Arizona Cardinals win, Arizona Cardinals cover (20), Under 47.5 (40)
- Crowd: 28.71-17; Arizona Cardinals win, Arizona Cardinals cover (11.71), Under 47.5 (45.71)
- Carolina Panthers-Atlanta Falcons (-2.5), total: 54; 23-16, Carolina Panthers win, Carolina Panthers cover (7), Under 54 (39)
- Crowd: 26.43-23.57; Carolina Panthers win, Carolina Panthers cover (2.86), Under 54 (50)
- Los Angeles Rams-Washington Football Team (7), total: 46; 30-10, Los Angeles Rams win, Los Angeles Rams cover (20), Under 46 (40)
- Crowd: 27.17-18.33; Los Angeles Rams win, Los Angeles Rams cover (8.83), Under 46 (45.5)
- Los Angeles Chargers-New Orleans Saints (-7), total: 50; 27-30, New Orleans Saints win, Los Angeles Chargers cover (-3), Over 50 (57)
- Crowd: 23.86-29.14; New Orleans Saints win, Los Angeles Chargers cover (-5.29), Over 50 (53)
Weekly Crowd Summary
- Overall Crowd score for the week: 43 points
- 9-5 straight-up
- Record: 45-18 (70%, -1%)
- 5-9 ATS
- Record: 37-37-3 (50%, -3%)
- 7-7 against the total
- Record: 39-33-5 (54%, -1%)
- 9 total predictors
Detailed Crowd Records
Here is a bit more detail about the crowd records:
- Favorites: 8-4 (49-20)
- Underdogs: 1-1 (5-3)
- Favorites: 2-5 (16-17-3 overall)
- Thread-the-needle: 2-3 (16-17 overall)
- Underdog: 1-1 (5-3 overall)
- Over: 1-2 (22-13-3)
- Under: 6-5 (17-20-2)
- MyBookie.ag Super Contest – 1.5-3.5 this week. Not the comeback we were hoping for.
- Panthers +2.5 at Falcons – WIN
- Rams -7.5 at Washington – WIN
- Texans -5.5 vs Jaguars – WIN
- Bengals +11.5 at the Ravens – LOSS
- Browns +1.5 vs Colts – WIN
- This was the mirror image of Week 2. In week 2 the crowd only picked 3 incorrectly and I somehow picked two for our Super Contest entry. This week, the crowd only got 5 correct, but we picked 4 for the Super Contest to bounce back from a couple of bad weeks and brings our record to .500 (12.5-12.5)
Hot Take Counter
We started last week after passing the quarter-pole of the season assessing the “authentic records” in each conference – meaning we take a look at each of the top contenders and debate whether or not they are actually a good team based on their opponents records and any really quality victories they’ve accumulated.
After just 4 games the data doesn’t reveal a whole lot as the contenders are, for the most part the “haves” while their opponents have been the “have-nots” so far with so few games played. This has certainly been true of the season so far.
But Week 5 did yield some interesting results with a couple really quality victories – most notably by the Raiders beating the Chiefs in KC, the Browns topping the Cols and the TItans just tonight with a big win over the Bills following Tennessee’s COVID outbreak drama.
We’ll start in the NFC though with my Seahawks who scored a thrilling victory on Sunday night over the Vikings on a last second TD to cap off a 94-yard drive with under 2 mins to go! This is an example of what I would consider a quality win over a team in the Vikings that is actually probably better than their record reveals. Their loss to the Seahawks drops them to a miserable 1-4 on the season, while the Seahawks move to 5-0 for the first time in franchise history.
The Vikings (and Lions), unsurprisingly have played the hardest schedule in the NFC and the 3rd toughest in the entire NFL after 5 weeks according to opponent records. And I gotta say Chris, they looked like the better team in that game against the Seahawks for much of the time – just not when it mattered most. I say all this to further illustrate that the concept of “Authentic Records” is always fully up for debate – even when it appears to be black-and-white.
- Wins – Falcons, Patriots, Cowboys, Dolphins, Vikings – Cumulative record of 5-15 (Opp Win %: 38%) (+34 net points)
- Packers – BYE
- Wins – Vikings, Lions, Saints, Falcons – (Opp Win %: 33%) (+51 net points)
- Wins – Bucs, Lions, Chargers (Opp Win %: 57%) +3 net points
- Losses – Packers
- Wins – Lions, Giants, Falcons, Bucs – (Opp Win %: 32%) (+6 net points)
- Losses – Colts
- Wins – Cowboys, Eagles, Giants, Washington – (Opp Win %: 38%) (+46 net points)
- Losses – Bills
- 3-way tie at 3-2
- Wins – Jets, Giants, Rams, Raiders (Opp Win %: 65%) (-3 net points)
- Losses – Titans
- Wins – Texans, Chargers, Ravens, Patriots (Opp Win %: 53%) (+39 net points) Best opponent record
- Losses – Raiders
- Wins – Giants, Broncos, Texans, Eagles (Opp Win %: 24%) (+31 net points)
- Wins – Broncos, Jaguars, Vikings, Bills (Opp Win %: 46%) (+32 net points)
- Wins – Bengals, Cowboys, Washington, Colts – 3-9 (Opp Win %: 53%) (-2 net points)
- Losses – Ravens
- Wins – Browns, Washington, Texans, Bengals – 4-8 (Opp Win %: 53%) (+49 net points)
- Losses – Chiefs
- Wins – Vikings, Bears, Jets – 4-8 (Opp Win %: 40%) (+47 net points)
- Losses – Jaguars, Browns
Expert Analysis Analysis
Courtesy of Robert Sturgul who tracks many of the experts. 23 total individual predictors this week. Our crowd’s best bets performed the best in Week 5 with 36%
|Crowd Wisdom (Select)||36.27%|
|Cynthia Frelund (NFL)||20.62%|
|Lorenzo Rayes USA Today)||12.58%|
|Chris Mueller (Yardbarker)||10.67%|
|John Breech – CBS||7.34%|
|Tom Schad (USA Today)||4.38%|
|Greg Rosenthal (NFL.com)||1.97%|
|Todd Haislop (Sporting News)||0.00%|
|Fantasy Guru (Twitter)||-0.42%|
|Jarrett Bell (USA Today)||-2.76%|
|Pete Prisco (CBS)||-2.87%|
|Jori Epstein (USA Today)||-3.59%|
|Nate Davis (USA Today)||-7.84%|
|Mike Jones (USA Today)||-20.38%|
|Mike Middlehurst-Schwartz (USA Today)||-22.82%|
|Vinnie Iyer (SportingNews)||-26.03%|
|Colin Cowherd (Fox)||-40.40%|
|Total Experts: 23|
- Jacksonville Jaguars-Houston Texans (-5.5), total: 54.5; 14-30, Houston Texans win, Houston Texans cover (-16), Under 54.5 (44)
- Crowd: 20.86-23.71; Houston Texans win, Jacksonville Jaguars cover (-2.86), Under 54.5 (44.57)
- Correct: Texans win, Under 54.5
- Incorrect: Jaguars cover (thread-the-needle prediction)
- Philadelphia Eagles-Pittsburgh Steelers (-7), total: 44; 29-38, Pittsburgh Steelers win, Pittsburgh Steelers cover (-9), Over 44 (67)
- Crowd: 19.14-24.86; Pittsburgh Steelers win, Philadelphia Eagles cover (-5.71), PUSH (44)
- Correct: Steelers win
- Incorrect: Eagles cover (thread-the-needle prediction), PUSH on the total
- Cincinnati Bengals-Baltimore Ravens (-11.5), total: 50.5; 3-27, Baltimore Ravens win, Baltimore Ravens cover (-24), Under 50.5 (30)
- Crowd: 20.14-29.71; Baltimore Ravens win, Cincinnati Bengals cover (-9.57), Under 50.5 (49.86)
- Correct: Ravens win, Under 50.5
- Incorrect: Bengals cover (another thread-the-needle prediction, but with a much larger eye hole)
- New York Giants-Dallas Cowboys (-7.5), total: 52; 34-37, Dallas Cowboys win, New York Giants cover (-3), Over 52 (71)
- Crowd: 21.29-28.14; Dallas Cowboys win, New York Giants cover (-6.86), Under 52 (49.43)
- Correct: Cowboys win, Giants cover (yay a correct thread-the-needle!)
- Incorrect: Under 52
- Minnesota Vikings-Seattle Seahawks (-6.5), total: 54.5; 26-27, Seattle Seahawks win, Minnesota Vikings cover (-1), Under 54.5 (53)
- Crowd: 22.86-31.57; Seattle Seahawks win, Seattle Seahawks cover (-8.71), Under 54.5 (54.43)
- Correct: Seahawks win, Under 54.5 (by mere hundredths of a point)
- Incorrect: Seahawks cover – should have known better after last season!
Winner winner chicken dinner!
Here’s who came out on top on our Leaderboards in Week 5.
- Prediction Score: Chris pulled away from the crowd with a solid 59 prediction points
- Straight-up: 10-4
- ATS: 8-6
- O/U: 10-4
- 3 Bullseyes
- Perfect Predictions (10-pointers):
- Still no perfect predictions!
- Stake Stacks of the Week:
- Biggest Stack – Bryan Cole
- Netted 15 stakes off 81 wagered which was good for an 18.5% ROI
- Best ROI
- Paul comes out on top in the Return-on-Investment department netting 12 stakes off only 30 wagered – good for a brisk 40% return – not too shabby!
- Biggest Stack – Bryan Cole
- Prediction score
- Bryan Cole on top with 297 total points
- Chris close behind with 293
- Paul a distant 3rd place with 261
- Gemma Aronchick leading the ROI with an impressive 24.4% from 119 stakes wagered
- Bryan Cole with the biggest overall stake stack by a mile with 51, but took him 328 stakes wagered to get there (for a still solid 15.5% ROI)
Head over to stakehousesports.com to download the app and start predicting (or predict using our web app. Remember, you can win up to $50 a week in Amazon gift cards as well as a prestigious shout-out on this here program. Odds update daily, so make sure to check your predictions before gametime.
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