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Week 11, Game 1 – The Mean Median

A few weeks ago a late set of predictions pushed the crowd to a last-second correct prediction of the Bills-Jets spread. Yesterday, the reverse happened. Most predictions favored Pittsburgh by 7 with one favoring them by 9. The crowd wisdom set the spread at just over the spread of 7. Nearing kickoff, a prediction favoring Pittsburgh by 3 brought the predicted spread under the line, thus favoring Tennessee as the pick. As a result, the final result for the crowd after the 40-17 victory by the Steelers was 1 for 3.

This brings up the subject of when to use median as opposed to the mean. When you’re dealing with large numbers that are relatively close in range, the average and the median are pretty close. However, when you have either a small sample size or a wide range, the median works better for understanding the crowd. The example I recall is you have 9 people sitting at a bar, and you want to understand the salary of each person in the crowd. Two people make $40,000 per year, three make $45,000, and four people make $50,000. So across all of the patrons, the mean and the median would be pretty close. If Kirk Cousins sits down at the end of the bar, though, the mean shoots up to around $2.5 million, but the mean barely moves.

On Thursday, the mean spread dropped from 7.5 to 6.6 by kickoff because of one prediction, while the mean dropped about 7.1 to 7.

I’ve said a few times already that, as our crowd grows in size, the effect of outliers on the mean will have less of an effect, so the difference between the mean and median will be small, but in these early days, we can still see a pretty big discrepancy. If we were to take our crowd wisdom to the sports book, we’d want to make sure that we had both data points in order to make the best-informed wager.

The Game 1 CPR – 1 for 3.

Correct: Straight-up; Incorrect: Over/Under; Against the Spread

I blame myself for the crowd result on Thursday night. I posted our prediction to Twitter in response to Ms. Frelund’s tweet for scores, and at the time our crowd had favored the Steelers, so that’s who I was rooting for. It wasn’t until the third quarter that I realized that our crowd flipped sides on the spread, and at that point Pittsburgh was already pulling away and I couldn’t bring them back. I’ll do better next time in my rooting influence.

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The Cynthia Frelund Experience

Cynthia Frelund’s crowd (@cfrelund) also went 2-1. Some members of the crowd predicted some pretty big victories for the Steelers, most predicted relatively close games with Tennessee covering but still losing, and 25% picked the Titans to win outright but usually by a small margin. Ultimately, the average spread was about 5 (Tennessee covers) and the total stayed above the line of 44.5.

-Chris

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Week 10 CPR: Equilibrium?

In Weeks 1 and 2, our crowd was pretty small, with only 4 predictors predicting most of the games. Week 5 was the first week in which we had at least 10 predictors, and we have had a pretty consistently sized audience after that point. So it’s interesting to look at the results from Week 5 onward. Three weeks of better than 50% (57%, 53%, and 62%) and one week at 50% is a nice consistent performance against the spread. There were two bad weeks mixed in there, so it’s worth mentioning that we may see a poor performance in the future to offset the solid weeks (though we don’t expect that, of course :)). For what it’s worth, one of those down weeks, Week 8, had only 6 predictors. So for all weeks with at least 10 predictors, the crowd has a 52% success rate against the spread. While this is only slightly better than a coin flip, it’s also just slightly worse than the best predictors out there.

One other note is that the crowd has predicted the winners in the last 4 weeks at better than 62%, and the crowd has never been worse than 50%. For the season, the crowd has picked the winners 64% of the time. That is pretty remarkable given that a lot of experts are not at that level (only 2 of 11 experts on ESPN.com have more than our crowd).

So once again, great job crowd!

We had 11 total predictors this week (same as last week), though we only had 7 with 13 or more predictions. Please tell your friends to add their wisdom!

Another Near-Hit This Week!

User Mark hit the trifecta this week when he predicted a 21-17 Jaguars victory over the Chargers (actual: 20-17). He also deserves some sort of credit for being the lone prognosticator to pick the Packers to beat the Bears. Nice work Mark!

CPR Week 10 Summary

  • Straight-up: 11-3 (79%)
  • Against the Spread: 7-6-1 (50%)
  • Over/Under: 5-9 (36%)

Overall

  • Straight-up: 93-53 (64%, +2%)
  • Against the Spread: 69-77 (47%, +0%)
  • Over/Under: 72-74 (49%, -2%)

11 predictors in Week 10, same as Week 9. Thank you to those who keep returning. We cannot tell you how much we appreciate your support. Please tell your friends!

The Cynthia Frelund Experience

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Another trifecta for @crelund‘s crowd in the Week 10 Monday night game, though it took a late move of the line down to Panthers -8 to come through since the crowd predicted a Carolina victory of 8.8 points. Our crowd predicted a much closer game, as well as lower scoring, so while we had the correct side, we only went 1 for 3. This just goes to show that the bigger the crowd, the likelier our predictions will be more reliable.

The WotC Game of the Week

There were 3 trifectas this week: Vikings-Washington, Patriots-Broncos, and Chargers-Jaguars. For anyone who has followed the blog, you may recall that I love it when the crowd threads the needs of picking the favorite to win but also picking the underdog to cover, and that’s exactly what happened with in Jacksonville in Week 10. Additionally, the crowd predicted a 3-point spread and yea, verily it came to pass.

PREDICTION CROWD ACTUAL
Winner Jaguars Jaguars
Spread Jaguars by 3.5 (spread was Jaguars by 5) Jaguars by 3
Over/Under 40 (under 40.5) 37

The Wabby of the Week

There were two games on which the crowd whiffed on: Packers-Bears and Giants-49ers. Personally, I don’t think that it’s all that surprising that a rookie lost, but if I had told you that New York and San Francisco would score 52 points and gave you the Niners and 9 points, I’d say you’d be hurting on Monday morning.

PREDICTION CROWD ACTUAL
Winner Giants 49ers
Spread Giants by 3 (spread was Giants by 1) 49ers by 10
Over/Under 35.75 (under 41.5) 52

Week 10 Top Performers

Here are our top performers for Week 10. Congrats everyone and thanks again for your help!

STRAIGHT-UP AGAINST THE SPREAD OVER/UNDER
G.A. (11)
P.C. (11)
E.A. (10)
M.G. (10)
C.A. (10)
B.C. (9)
M.G. (8)
4 tied at 6
B.C. (8)
M.G. (7)
G.A. (7)
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Week 10, Game 1 – The Moving Target

The crowd saw the Seahawks as a best-bet this week, predicting the final spread to be more than double the consensus Vegas line (-14.6 compared to -6). As the week went on, the line started to move towards the Seahawks, starting out at 5.5 and ending at 6 (all consensus lines are provided by oddsshark.com). Vegas Insider even showed some spreads that went as high as Seahawks -6.5.  Ultimately, Jeremy Lane saved anyone who didn’t bet with the hook by blocking the PAT and keeping the final spread at 6.

What this example reminds me of is that the crowd wisdom applies to a fixed target while the Vegas lines are actually moving so the wisdom can be both right and wrong. Before I updated the Vegas lines, the game was a trifecta: the spread was Seattle -5.5 and the total was 41.5. When the game kicked off, the spread and total had moved a half point and a point and a half, respectively. So just as travel sites tell you to wait or buy regarding ticket prices, our site will likely to the same. As the sportsbooks adjust to the money coming in, the crowd wisdom can identify when value is exposed.

As a reminder, the larger the crowd, the better it performs, so please tell your friends to join us!

The Game 1 CPR – 1 for 2 with a push.

Correct: Straight-up; Incorrect: Over/Under; Push: Against the Spread

This was the second straight primetime game in which a late score knocked the crowd off a win. Big thanks to Jeremy Lane of the Seahawks for preserving the push, though. If Arizona had converted the PAT, it would have been a backdoor cover. When Lane blocked the PAT, the difference between a five- and a six-point lead was basically immaterial. What should we call it when the favorite maintains the cover?

The best term I can come up with is screen-door, which hopefully resonate with anyone who has ever tried to run into a house through what looked like an open door only to go face-first into the screen door.

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The Cynthia Frelund Experience

Cynthia Frelund’s crowd (@cfrelund) also went 1-1-1, predicting a 10-point victory and a 42-point total. One user predicted a 46-44 victory for the Seahawks, and that prediction alone moved the total nearly a whole point. That’s a reminder that, even a crowd size of 50 can be moved pretty significantly in one direction by a single prediction. Getting to a triple-digit crowd size will ensure that these extremes do not affect the average. In a later post, we’ll address one of the main gaps that we have when aggregating from Twitter compared with Crowdsourced Scores.

-Chris

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Week 9 CPR: The Whole vs. the Parts

It may seem strange to consider an 8, 8, and 7 week to be a success, but that’s a decent performance out of 13 games.

The interesting data that jumped out at me this week is how the crowd was greater than the sum of its parts. The highest against-the-spread percentage for an individual predictor this week was 62% (8 of 13) with the next highest percentage being 50% (6 of 12). (I should point out that new user J.J. hit the trifecta on the Monday night game for a 100% success rate.) So the crowd at 8 correct matched the high of any individual. A brief look at previous weeks shows a similar pattern. There were one or two individuals who performed better than the crowd, but overall, the crowd was in the upper end of the correct answers.

We had 11 predictors this week (3 up from last week), but we could still use your help to grow our crowd. Please tell your friends to add their wisdom!

Two Near-Hits This Week!

Two predictors were oh-so-close to on-the-money predictions. P.C. predicted a 23-19 Titans victory over the Ravens (actual: 23-20), and new predictor J.J. predicted a 31-17 victory for the Lions over the Packers (actual: 30-17). Nice work you two!

CPR Week 9 Summary

  • Straight-up: 8-5 (62%)
  • Against the Spread: 8-5 (62%)
  • Over/Under: 7-6 (54%)

Overall

  • Straight-up: 82-50 (62%, +0%)
  • Against the Spread: 62-70 (47%, +2%)
  • Over/Under: 67-65 (51%, +1%)

13 predictors this week, up 5 from last week. Thank you to those who keep returning. We cannot tell you how much we appreciate your support. Please tell your friends!

The Cynthia Frelund Experience

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@crelund‘s crowd hit the trifecta again this week. The touchdown scored by the Packers on the untimed down at the end of the game swung the total from under to over. Both our crowd and Ms. Frelund’s crowd predicted a total right around the Vegas line, showing that they didn’t see a lot of value in it. Meanwhile, both crowds predicted a comfortable victory for the Lions compared to the spread indicating that they saw a fair bit of value.

The WotC Game of the Week

The Rams-Giants game gets the nod this week for the best crowd prediction primarily because of the value identified in the spread. Not only did the crowd predict all three results, it also predicted that the Vegas line was way under-valued, and that is exactly how the final result turned out to be. If I were being a stickler, I would have liked to have seen a bigger value identified with respect to the total, but getting a best-bet correct is pretty good in my book.

PREDICTION CROWD ACTUAL
Winner Rams Rams
Spread Rams  by 7.8 (spread was Rams by 4) Rams by 34
Over/Under 42.6 (over 42) 68

The Wabby of the Week

The one game the crowd got wrong across the board this week was Washington-Seahawks. The crowd predicted a pretty easy win for Seattle, and instead, Washington, a 7-point underdog, ended up winning outright.

PREDICTION CROWD ACTUAL
Winner Seahawks Washington
Spread Seahawks by 9.3 Washington by 3
Over/Under 49.1 (over 45) 31

Week 9 Top Performers

Here are our top performers for Week 9. Congrats everyone and thanks again for your help!

STRAIGHT-UP AGAINST THE SPREAD OVER/UNDER
B.C. (9)
E.A. (9)
C.D. (8)
C.A. (8)
C.A. (8)
B.C. (6)
E.A. (6)
E.P. (6)
G.A. (7)
B.C. (7)
C.A. (7)
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Week 9, Game 1 – Under the Wire

 

Tl;dr: the crowd ended getting both the total and the spread correct, but they didn’t see a lot of value.

As you can see in the chart, for the first half of the week, our crowd expected the Bills to cover the 3 points against the Jets, but then the pendulum swung back to right on the spread, and a last-second flurry of predictions towards the Jets pushed the predicted spread to Bills -2.5. Meanwhile, the total hovered right around the Vegas total of 43 and ultimately finished at 44.2.

So in the end, at least with respect to the spread, late activity by the crowd ended up proving their wisdom correct. As we have discussed in the past, we would expect the crowd to have the most information as close to the game as possible, so if the crowd prediction is hovering close to the lines set by Vegas, these late predictions could push the crowd closer to what may end up being the actual result

As a reminder, the larger the crowd, the better it performs, so please tell your friends to join us!

The Game 1 CPR – 2 for 3

Correct: Against the Spread, Over/Under; Incorrect: Straight-up

While I am happy that the crowd got 2 out of 3 predictions correct, I think that perhaps the larger message would be that there isn’t a lot of value in this game. If the crowd only sees a small discrepancy between the Vegas spread and the predicted spread, it should be an indicator that the line is probably not worth betting on, and that’s valuable by itself.

We have started to track our best bets over the course of the season, and we’re optimistic that the crowd will prove its wisdom well over the course of the season.

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The Cynthia Frelund Experience

Cynthia Frelund’s crowd (@cfrelund) had its second 0-3 game of the year, but as you can see, her crowd did not see a lot of value in the total either. The crowd did overestimate pretty consistently a Bills victory by a reasonable margin. But upsets happen, and the overall trend for her crowd is still solid.

-Chris

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Week 8 CPR: Schroedinger’s Parrot

On Friday, I wondered whether the TNF game between the Dolphins and Ravens was a dead parrot or one that was just resting (the context is all in the article and is too long to go into here). After Week 8 concluded, the answer was, maybe both?

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Take a look at the ATS vs. Over/Under results from Week 7 to Week 8. Week 8 had one fewer game than Week 7, and yet the crowd more than doubled its Over/Under percentage, going from 29% correct to 62% correct. Meanwhile, the ATS correct picks went from 57% (8-6) to 38% (5-8). (We had 8 predictors this week.)

So in a way, the Thursday night game was a prefect microcosm of Week 8 as a whole, and the parrot was both alive and dead. The crowd was aligned with the winners (11 of 13!) and the totals, but it was off regarding the spread, just as it was on Thursday. We’ll keep an eye on Thursday’s going forward to see if we can identify trends ahead of the Sunday games.

With only 8 predictors, we could use your help to grow our crowd. Please tell your friends to add their wisdom!

Another Near-Hit On the Money Prediction by the Crowd!

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I have to repeat that accuracy is nice, but identifying value is the real benefit for the wisdom of the crowd. Still, it’s nice to highlight when the crowd almost nails a score. In Week 8, it was Falcons-Jets.

The crowd predicted a 25-21 victory for the Falcons and the final ended up being 25-20. One interesting thing to note about this game is that the spread of the game moved to Falcons -6.5 by Sunday morning, so the crowd ended up hitting the trifecta, though had the line stayed at 4.5, they would have missed it.

That’s one reason why we’re trying to identify value in betting lines. The delta between a 4-point victory and a 4.5-point spread indicates very little value; the gap between 4 points and 6.5 points obviously indicates more. As our crowd grows in size, we believe that we’ll be able to identify more regularly the lines that have the most value.

CPR Week 8 Summary

  • Straight-up: 11-2 (85%)
  • Against the Spread: 5-8 (38%)
  • Over/Under: 8-5 (62%)

Overall

  • Straight-up: 74-45 (62%, +3%)
  • Against the Spread: 54-65 (45%, -1%)
  • Over/Under: 60-59 (50%, +1%)

8 predictors this week, down 8 from last week. Thank you to those who keep returning. We cannot tell you how much we appreciate your support. Please tell your friends!

The Cynthia Frelund Experience

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@crelund‘s crowd, along with you all, picked the Chiefs and the total to go over the total of 43. One other interesting tidbit is that the most common Chiefs score (also known as the mode) was 27 and the most common Broncos score was 17, so the final of 29-19 was quite close to the most common scores. A Twitter follower (@GlobalScout) suggested that 27 and 17 are both pretty common because they are a common combination of touchdowns and field goals (one or two field goals, no safeties or missed PATs), and looking back at previous weeks, that appears to be the trend. However, I thought that the delta of 10 between the modes mirroring the final score was worth tracking.

The WotC Game of the Week

The Falcons-Jets game would be an easy selection for the WotC Game of the Week, but the game that stood out to me was Bears-Saints, particularly because it was a thread-the-needle game of the underdog covering the spread without winning outright. Additionally, the crowd had a best bet on the total, predicting a 5-point difference between the over/under and the actual total.

PREDICTION CROWD ACTUAL
Winner Saints Saints
Spread Saints -6.2 (spread was Saints -8.5) Saints -8
Over/Under 40.2 (under 45.5) 32

The Wabby of the Week

There was only one game this week in which the crowd missed all three predictions (nice work crowd!), and it was (sigh) Raiders-Bills. The crowd’s perception of the Raiders this year has been consistently high, and it have missed every loss so far. And of course, if you had given me the Bills and 19 points, you’d have my house and I’d have a barrel.

PREDICTION CROWD ACTUAL
Winner Raiders Bills
Spread Raiders +0.5 Bills -20
Over/Under 44 (under 47.5) 48

Week 8 Top Performers

Here are our top performers for Week 8. Congrats everyone and thanks against for your help!

STRAIGHT-UP AGAINST THE SPREAD OVER/UNDER
E.A. (12)
C.A. (12)
M.R. (10)
C.A. (9)
M.R. (8)
E.A. (6)
E.P. (6)
M.R. (8)
P.C. (7)
C.A. (7)
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Week 8, Game 1 – The Parrot

The Thursday night game was certainly unusual. I am keen to examine Thursday night games and the crowd’s predictions and determine whether they can act as a canary in the coal mine. Until we have a bit more of a sample size, it did make me wonder about the state of the canary going into Sunday’s games.

On the one hand, the crowd, thanks to a late break in predictions from Miami to Baltimore, got 2 of 3 correct. Additionally, it predicted the total almost exactly — 39.8 to the actual of 40. On the other hand, the crowd predicted a 1-point victory for Baltimore, so the predicted result and the actual result were very far apart.

Is this a harbinger of things to come in Week 8?

We obviously won’t know for sure until Sunday’s games are in the books, but I’m keeping an eye out on games, particularly best bets, to see if there is any correlation between when the crowd is off on Thursday night and the results on Sunday.

The theory of the wisdom of the crowd is that the relevant details are factored in by enough people to move the average accordingly. If the ability of the crowd to move the averages in the right direction can be measured on Thursday night, it may be possible to identify whether its ability will also carry over to the other games on Sunday. If so, we may be able to add a word of caution if the pattern exists.

As a reminder, the larger the crowd, the better it performs, so please tell your friends to join us!

The Game 1 CPR – 2 for 3

Correct: Over/Under, Straight-up; Incorrect: Against the Spread

As a mentioned above, the crowd picked the Ravens to win, but the performance of both teams was wildly off. The crowd predicted the over, and the game only hit on the total because of two fairly lucky (or unlucky depending on your allegiance) interception returns. Did the crowd use up all of its luck on Thursday? Let’s hope not.

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The Cynthia Frelund Experience

Cynthia Frelund’s crowd (@cfrelund) had its first 0-3 game of the year. The bad beat was the over/under which Baltimore covered all by itself thanks to a second pick-6. While an 0-3 runs counter to the theory, it should be recognized that the crowd has gotten at least one pick correct in 14 straight games.

-Chris

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Week 7 CPR: Does Size Matter?

You bet it does! Alright, who had 8 weeks in the office pool on “When will Chris make an innuendo in a headline”? You’re a winner!

Anyway, I’m referring to crowd size, just in case you were wondering, and I bring it up to highlight the difference between Cynthia Frelund‘s crowd size and ours. In the Monday night game in Week 7, we had a crowd size of 13. The crowd got the winner correct, but missed on the spread and the total. Meanwhile, we took around 60 predictions from Ms. Frelund’s crowd, and they nailed the trifecta.

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It’s pretty obvious, but it bears repeating that the larger the crowd size, the more likely the theory of the wisdom of the crowd will prove itself over time. In our crowd, 6 of the 13 predictions predicted the game would go over the Total of 48.5. However, there were two predictions in the low 30s. Why do they matter? They matter because the overs were around 50 (50, 52, and one 62). All 6 overs were almost entirely countered by one prediction of 31, and the 31 was the biggest outlier. If we had removed those two predictions, or more likely, countered them with two outliers on the Eagles side, the crowd may well have been correct.

Meanwhile, Ms. Frelund’s crowd also had only two scores in the 30s, but out of 60 predictions, the effect of the outliers were minimized as the crowd grew in size.

With that said, now is as good a time as any to ask you to  please tell your friends to join the crowd!

A Near-Hit On the Money Prediction by the Crowd!

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While accuracy in predicting the actual final score is less important than predicting the value in the betting lines, it’s always fun to recognize when the crowd almost nails a game. This week, the crowd predicted Vikings 23.3-Ravens 16.8, coming within less than a point from the final score for each team.

 

CPR Week 7 Summary

  • Straight-up: 11-4 (73%)
  • Against the Spread: 8-7 (53%)
  • Over/Under: 4-11 (27%)

Overall

  • Straight-up: 63-43 (59%, +2%)
  • Against the Spread: 49-57 (46%, +1%)
  • Over/Under: 52-54 (49%, -4%)

16 predictors this week, up one from last week! It’s a new high! Thank you so much everyone. We cannot tell you how much we appreciate your support.

The Cynthia Frelund Experience

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As mentioned above, @crelund‘s crowd hit the trifecta. Not only that, but the crowd predicted a comfortable win for the Eagles and to quote Gregg Easterbrook (who I assume is quoting something else), yea, verily it came to pass. There were two predictions that featured a double-digit Washington win, whereas there were 32 predictions featuring an Eagles double-digit win.

The WotC Game of the Week

I highlighted the crowd’s prescience with respect to the Ravens-Vikings game already, and while that was certainly interesting, the pick this week goes to the Cowboys-49ers. Normally, I wouldn’t count this because the crowd pushed on the total, but the crowd’s prediction against the spread is noteworthy. It was not a big surprise that Dallas won, but the crowd predicted a much bigger win than the spread, and that’s exactly how it played out.

PREDICTION CROWD ACTUAL
Winner Cowboys Cowboys
Spread Cowboys -11.7 (spread was Cowboys -6) Cowboys -40
Over/Under 47.5 (under 50) 50

The Wabby of the Week

While I imagine that most people did not predict the Chargers shutting out the Broncos or the Rams shutting out the Cardinals, it’s hard to argue that any game was more surprising than Panthers-Bears. The crowd predicted a big win for the Panthers, and it was the exact opposite.

PREDICTION CROWD ACTUAL
Winner Panthers Bears
Spread Panthers -9.3 (spread was -3) Bears -14
Over/Under 43 (over 40) 20

Week 7 Top Performers

R.M. is a new predictor this week and had a terrific week. Welcome!

Congrats everyone and thanks against for your help!

STRAIGHT-UP AGAINST THE SPREAD OVER/UNDER
R.M. (12)
N.G. (10)
M.R. (10)
E.A. (10)
K.B. (10)
N.G. (9)
R.M. (8)
6 Tied at 7
M.G. (7)
C.A. (7)
E.A. (7)
J.M. (7)
N.G. (7)

 

 

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Week 7, Game 1 – The Best Bad Beat

I’ll come out and admit it to you now: I am a Raiders fan. I have been one since about 1991. And before you respond, remember that Raiders fans suffered through decade-long stretches: post-2003 Super Bowl through 2016 and from Bo Jackson until Jon Gruden and Rich Gannon. We have experienced plenty of pain over the last 25 years. There are teams that have experienced more, but not many.

So the result of the Thursday night game is obviously mixed for me. On the one hand, I was very sad that our crowd, who had predicted the Chiefs to win by a margin of 6.75 points, had the correct straight-up and ATS result ripped from their grasp on the very last play of the game. It was a mirror image of the Chiefs-Washington game in which the Chiefs covered on a meaningless touchdown to end the game. On the other hand, that ending was among the most remarkable of any game I can remember, and if you like the NFL for the football (as opposed to extracurricular reasons), I’m sure you enjoyed it as well.

In any case, I wanted to point out one reason why crowd size is important that came out of the Thursday night result. As it turns out, the 47 Over/Under line that we had at the beginning of the week dropped a half point before the game, so the crowd still got the over/under line correct. Still, take a look at how a late set of predictions affected the aggregate total.

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With just a few predictions, the crowd went from comfortably above the Over/Under total to right on top of it. While the crowd was still correct, it goes to show how having a large, diversified crowd will protect the prediction from late movements. So please tell your friends to join us!

And of course, one other note is that this game was an outlier in a few ways. The Raiders scored far more than they had in the previous 3 weeks, and the total in the game will likely be one of the highest in Week 7. The WotC is most effective in predicting the majority of games as opposed to predicting outliers, so going 1 of 3 is not surprising in a game like this.

The Game 1 CPR – 1 for 3

Correct: Over/Under; Incorrect: Straight-up, Against the Spread

The Chiefs giveth, and the Chiefs taketh away. As I mentioned, two weeks ago the Chiefs improbably covered the spread on the last play of the game. On Thursday, with no time left on the clock, the crowd had the straight-up, spread, and over/under results correct. But then the Chiefs committed two penalties on consecutive downs, giving the Raiders 2 extra chances to win. On the final attempt, the Raiders succeeded, and the over/under was the only result that came through.

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The Cynthia Frelund Experience

Cynthia Frelund’s crowd (@cfrelund) was also 1 of 3 for the night, getting the Over/Under correct in the end. One interesting note is that all of the predictions that had KC scoring 28 or more, only 1 out of 25 (@MarvinSimeon) predicted the Raiders to win, and Mr. Simeon had the margin at just 1. So not only was it an outlier in terms of the straight up result, it had the final margin exactly right. That is some wizardry, and it goes to show that the larger the crowd, the more likely you’ll have that fringe better represented.

-Chris

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Week 6 CPR: The Pendulum

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I have to admit that I was very hopeful, after the crowd’s success on Thursday night, that Week 6 would be a swing of the pendulum back to the high side of 50% in terms of prediction success. The pendulum did indeed swing, but sadly it was in same the direction it was heading after Week 5.

This was the first week in which the crowd fared somewhat poorly across the board, only breaking even in its straight-up picks. That the crowd has performed well against the over/under in 5 of 6 weeks is a positive, but we’d really like to see performance against the spread to validate the wisdom of the crowd theory.

I said that Week 3 was the Upside Down, but this week was somehow more unpredictable. Aaron Rodgers gets injured, Jay Cutler stages a 17-point comeback over the defending NFC champions, and the Giants, after losing around 8 or so receivers from their depth chart, beat the AFC’s best pass defense in their building (sure, they only scored one touchdown on offense, but still). I said that we can expect two or three weeks like that every season, but with two of the first six weeks going off script, maybe I should take the over.

Another On the Money Prediction!

Congrats to P.M. who picked the Patriots to beat the Jets 24-17. Awesome job!

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P.M. predicted fairly early in the week (her prediction is enlarged in the chart). As we get further along with the product, we’ll try to correlate predictions to news, injury reports, and so on to see how outside information influences the crowd’s perceptions of a game and when key signals occur.

 

CPR Week 6 Summary

  • Straight-up: 7-7 (50%)
  • Against the Spread: 5-9 (36%)
  • Over/Under: 5-9 (36%)

Overall

  • Straight-up: 52-39 (57%, -1%)
  • Against the Spread: 41-50 (45%, -2%)
  • Over/Under: 48-43 (53%, -3%)

11 predictors this week, up one from last week! Thank you so much everyone. We cannot tell you how much we appreciate your support.

The Cynthia Frelund Experience

2017-week6-mnf

For the second straight week, @cfrelund‘s followers only got the winner correct on Monday night. For most of the Monday night game, the Colts looked like they would cover at least, and then the Titans blew the doors open in the last few minutes to give the crowd a pretty tough beat. In the end, as we have said, it’s the long game, so we’re still feeling pretty solid about how things will go over the course of the season.

The WotC Game of the Week

Once again, the crowd performed best with the Thursday night game, picking the underdog Eagles to triumph on the road with the game going over the total.

PREDICTION CROWD ACTUAL
Winner Eagles Eagles
Spread Eagles +0.43 (spread was Panthers -3) Eagles +5
Over/Under 47 (over 45) 51

The Wabby of the Week

The crowd missed on all three predictions for Packers-Vikings, but I’m disregarding that since it’s pretty safe to say that an Aaron Rodgers injury changes, well, everything.

The other choice for Week 6 was a remarkable result: Giants over Broncos. I take four starting receivers from the Giants and give you 12 points with the Denver defense? Yeah, we’d take that in a heartbeat. No one in the crowd predicted a Giants win, though it is interesting that the game total nearly matched the crowd even though the scores were reversed.

The crowd did correctly predict the under, and the crowd got at least one prediction right in every other game in Week 5.

PREDICTION CROWD ACTUAL
Winner Broncos Giants
Spread Broncos -13.3 (spread was -11.5) Giants -13
Over/Under 30.7 (under 39.5) 33

Week 6 Top Performers

There was a lot of clumping together this week as the individuals seemed to reflect the crowd pretty closely.

Congrats everyone and thanks against for your help!

STRAIGHT-UP AGAINST THE SPREAD OVER/UNDER
G.A. (8)
C.A. (7)
M.R. (7)
G.A. (9)
M.R. (7)
C.A. (6)
P.C. (11)
N.G. (10)
P.M. (9)