NFL Week 1 Total Line Movement Results

We got some good responses from the Spread line movement post yesterday, so I will also post my analysis of the line movement for the totals.

A few terminology definitions:

  • Open date: 1 week prior to game day
  • Mid: Any change between open and 1 day prior to game day
  • Late: Any change 1 day prior to game day


  • Midweek line adjustments: 6-5 (+1)
  • Late line adjustments: 5-0 (+5)
AwayHomeOpenMinLateMid $Late $Final TotalMid CorrectLate Correct

Source for Odds:


NFL Week 1 Spread Line Movement Results

We will be tracking the spread line movements for the NFL this season to see if there is any indication of line movement and value.

Here are a few terminology definitions:

Open date: 1 week prior to game day

Mid: Any change between open and 1 day prior to game day

Late: Any change 1 day prior to game day


  • Midweek line adjustments: 6-3 (+3)
  • Late line adjustments: 5-2 (+3)
WeekAwayHomeOpenMidLateMid $Late $FinalMid CorrectLate CorrectChart Link

Source for Odds:


2020 Season – NFL Regular Season Predictions

This week, we’re going to add to the many season-win predictions before the 2020 NFL season kicks off. We’ll talk about who we like to make it to the playoffs, but most importantly, we’ll talk about why we’ll almost certainly be wrong. We also enjoy some 2Bar Whiskey along the way.

2021 – Week 10 Recap – Episode 11 The Stakehouse Sports Podcast

Chris rides alone with the Elk Rider Whiskey as he covers a rough week for the crowd as the enter the second half of the season.
  1. 2021 – Week 10 Recap – Episode 11
  2. 2021 – Week 9 Recap – Episode 10
  3. 2021 – Week 8 Recap – Episode 9
  4. 2021 – Week 7 Recap – Episode 8
  5. 2021 – Week 6 Recap – Episode 7

Stakehouse Sports on Google Play Music Listen on Apple Podcasts

Show Notes

We are so psyched that the NFL got itself organized and has shown that responsible behavior can limit the spread of COVID-19.

With that out of the way, here are the notes from our NFL Season Preview episode:

Whiskey of the Week

  • Our whiskey of the week is the Straight Bourbon Whiskey from 2Bar Spirits.

Other Contests

As we did last season, we’ll be testing our crowd’s predicting prowess in a couple open “supercontests”… We’ll take the crowd’s final aggregate score predictions for each game compared to the same consensus betting lines we use to calculate our scoring model and apply this “crowd wisdom” in a real-world scenario.

NFL Pickwatch (Paul)

  • Our crowd’s picks straight-up and ATS plugged into NFL Pickwatch to see how they stack up against all the other predictors and experts tracked by Pickwatch
  • Not using crowd picks for the supercontest because it would be way too complicated (involves wagering virtual PW “coins”)

MyBookie Super Contest (Chris)

  • We will use a secret formula/methodology to determine our crowd’s 5 “best picks” of each week to make picks in the super contest.
  • Here’s the rub: If the crowd cromes through and we end up in the money, we’ll be sharing the prize money with our overall winners. The more people we have, the better the crowd wisdom, so make sure to tell your friends!

Division-by-Division Preview

AFC East

  • Paul:
    • Buf: 9-7, NE: 7-9, MIA: 3-13, NYJ: 3-13
  • Chris:
    • Buf: 9-7, NE: 9-7, MIA: 6-10, NYJ: 5-11
      • Buffalo takes the division with a better division record

AFC West:

  • Chris
    • KC: 13-3, LV: 7-9, DEN: 6-10, LAC: 4-12
  • Paul
    • KC: 12-4, DEN: 7-9, LV: 7-9, LAC: 6-10

AFC North:

  • Paul:
    • BAL: 11-5, PIT: 9-7, CIN: 5-11, CLE: 3-13
  • Chris:
    • BAL: 14-2, PIT: 12-4, CLE: 6-10, CIN: 4-12

AFC South:

  • Chris:
    • IND: 10-6, HOU: 10-6, TEN: 8-8, JAC: 3-13
  • Paul:
    • TEN: 12-4, HOU: 12-4, IND: 10-6, JAC: 3-13

AFC Playoff Standings (Chris)

  1. BAL (14-2)
  2. KC (13-3)
  3. IND (10-6)
  4. BUF (9-7, 5-1 in division)
  5. PIT (12-4)
  6. HOU (10-6)
  7. NE (9-7)

AFC Playoff Seedings (Paul)

  1. Tennessee Titans (12-4, 10-2 CONF, South Winner)
  2. Kansas City Chiefs (12-4, 9-3 CONF, West Winner)
  3. Baltimore Ravens (11-5, 7-5 CONF, North Winner)
  4. Buffalo Bills (9-7, 8-4 CONF, East Winner)
  5. Houston Texans (12-4, 8-4 CONF)
  6. Indianapolis Colts (10-6, 8-4 CONF)
  7. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7, 8-4 CONF)

And now on to the NFC…

NFC East:

  • Chris:
    • DAL: 10-6, PHI: 6-10, NYG: 4-12, WAS: 2-14
  • Paul:
    • DAL: 11-5, PHI: 10-6, NYG: 4-12, WAS: 3-13

NFC West:

  • Paul:
    • SF: 13-3, SEA: 11-5, LAR: 10-6, ARI: 7-9
  • Chris:
    • SF: 13-3, SEA: 12-4, LAR: 11-5, ARI: 5-11

NFC North:

  • Chris:
    • GB: 13-3, MIN: 7-9, CHI: 4-12, DET: 3-13
  • Paul:
    • GB-13-3, MIN 9-7, CHI: 6-10, DET: 4-12

NFC South:

  • Paul:
    • NO: 12-4, TB: 10-6, ATL: 7-9, CAR: 6-10
  • Chris:
    • TB: 13-3, NO: 13-3, ATL: 9-7, CAR: 2-14

NFC Playoff Seedings (Chris)

  1. SF (13-3, 10-2 in Conf)
  2. GB (13-3)
  3. TB (13-3)
  4. DAL (10-6)
  5. NO (13-3)
  6. SEA (12-4)
  7. LAR (11-5)

NFC Playoff Seedings (Paul)

  1. Green Bay Packers (13-3, 11-1 CONF, North Winner)
  2. SF 49ers (13-3, 9-3 CONF, West Winner)
  3. NO Saints (12-4, 8-4 CONF, South Winner)
  4. Dallas Cowboys (11-5, 8-4 CONF, East Winner)
  5. Seattle Seahawks (11-5, 7-5 CONF)
  6. Philadelphia Eagles (10-6, 7-5 CONF)
  7. Tampa Bay Bucs (10-6, 7-5 CONF)

(Rams just missing out also 10-6 but 6-6 in CONF)


Head over to to download the app and start predicting (or predict using our web app. Remember, you can win up to $50 a week in Amazon gift cards as well as a prestigious shout-out on this here program. Odds update daily, so make sure to check your predictions before gametime.

You can also follow us on Twitter using handle @houseofstakes, and on Facebook at And you can always contact us at


2020 Season – Welcome Back! – Episode 0

Paul and Chris return from the break and talk about all the COVID effects they foresee. Who has a leg up and who will be a step behind? Also, we enjoy some Fremont Mischief Distillery Rye Whiskey.

Stakehouse Sports on Google Play Music Listen on Apple Podcasts

Show Notes

Welcome back everyone. We hope you had a nice break since Game 267, and we hope you and yours are staying healthy. Please continue to wash your hands, practice social distancing, and wear a mask (even if you don’t think it helps slow the spread of Coronavirus, doing none of those DEFINITELY doesn’t slow the spread of the Coronavirus).

With that out of the way, here are the notes from our Welcome Back episode:

What is Stakehouse Sports about?

Stakehouse Sports is a new prediction game.

  • Instead of just predicting the winner straight up or against the spread, you predict the scores of each game.
  • By predicting the scores, you predict the winner, the spread side, and the over/under. So, you earn points for each prediction, plus you can earn bonus points for any exact predictions.
    • You can earn up to ten points for each prediction.

We’re also testing out whether the Wisdom of the Crowd can work for sports gambling.

  • Can the WotC can identify value at the sportsbooks?
  • We aggregate all of our users’ predictions to generate a crowd prediction, and we gauge that against the final score
  • Last Year’s Results:
    • Straight-up: 163 correct, 93 incorrect (63.6%)
      • 2018: 162-94 (63.2%)
    • ATS: 116 correct, 133 incorrect, 7 pushes (the final result matched the spread) (46.5%)
      • 2018: 135-111-10 (54.8%)
    • Total: 137 correct, 116 incorrect, 3 pushes (54.1%)
      • 2018: 134-117-5 (53.3%)
    • It was not a great year against the spread, but for the total, the crowd did pretty well.
    • We had about 10 regular predictors, and we’re hoping to bump that up because a single predictor can skew the average pretty significantly.

Whiskey of the Week

How will COVID effect the NFL Season?

  • Why any prediction we make will be wrong
    • Lack of crowds
      • Who benefits
        • Road teams early
        • Inexperienced O-lines
        • Veterans, established position groups, trusted coaches
      • Who doesn’t
        • Home-field advantage teams
          • KC, NO, DEN, SEA, PIT, LV
    • Lack of real-game experience
      • Who benefits
        • Experienced coaches and players
      • Who doesn’t
        • New coaches, new teammates – highly cohesive groups
          • Washington, NYG, Carolina, Browns, Cowboys
        • Rookie players
          • No mini camps and meet-ups
      • Impact players in the draft and free agency


  • We’ll be rolling out our contest information next week along with our AFC Season Win Totals Podcast.
  • We hope you’ll join us and tell us what we got wrong.


2019 Regular Season Results

Hey all, here’s a quick recap of our 2019 Regular Season Results as we gear up for the 2020 campaign.

  • Straight-up: 163-93 (63.6%)

    • 2018: 162-94 (63.2%)

  • Against the Spread: 116-133-7 (46.5%)

    • 2018: 135-111-10 (54.8%)

  • Total: 137-116-3 (54.1%)

    • 2018: 134-117-5 (53.3%)

I tend to focus on the spread results (probably because I’m in a spread pool) which makes it easy to overlook the improvement of the over/under results. Our over/under results have been remarkably consistent through the years.

If you were to tail just the over/under through the season, you’d make a profit. Spread? Not so much. 🙂

Leaderboards Recap

2019 Divisional Round Weekend Crowd Results and Leaderboard

The crowd got off to a great start on Wild Card Weekend, and they did even better during the Divisional Round. Thanks to a 4-0 record picking the winners, 3-1 against the spread, and 3-1 against the total, the crowd turned $120 into almost $170!

Here are the results:

WagerStakeResultRunning Total
Chiefs ML$10$14.55$124.55
IND-KC Over 54.5$10$0$114.55
Chiefs -4.5$10$19.09$123.64
Rams ML$10$13.33$126.97
DAL-LAR Over 48$10$18.70$135.67
Cowboys +7$10$0$125.67
Patriots ML$10$15.00$130.67
LAC-NE Over 47.5$10$19.09$139.76
Patriots -4$10$19.09$148.85
Saints ML$10$12.63$151.48
PHI-NO Under 52.5$10$19.09$160.57
Eagles +8.5$10$19.09$169.66

Hit two trifectas in one day? Yes please!

This was just an outstanding weekend for the crowd, and while the Cowboys were thisclose to hitting the backdoor cover, the crowd got lucky with the Will Lutz miss that gave the Eagles the cover, so we’ll call it even.

Our Divisional Round Winners were Derek and Gemma with 21 total points. Coincidentally, that tied the crowd prediction score as well. Congrats to both!

The end-of-postseason pot now stands at $152.33 which will be split among the top 3 finishers.

The current Postseason Podium has a little room between the top two and third place, but the fight for third looks to be fierce:

  • Gemma, 37 points
  • ChrisLivdahl, 36 points
  • MichaelRaymond, 30 points


Leaderboards Recap

2019 Wild Card Weekend Crowd Results and Leaderboard

The crowd got off to a great start on Wild Card Weekend, turning a tidy profit of $15 off the initial stake of $120.

Here are the results:

Wager Stake Result Running Total
Colts ML $10 $20.50 $130.50
Colts +1.5 $10 $19.09 $139.59
IND-HOU Under 48.5 $10 $19.09 $148.68
Seahawks ML $10 $0 $138.68
Seahawks +2.5 $10 $19.52 $148.20
SEA-DAL Over 43 $10 $19.09 $157.29
BAL ML $10 $0 $147.29
LAC +3 $10 $18.70 $155.99
LAC-BAL Over 43 $10 $0 $145.99
CHI ML $10 $0 $135.99

So, the lesson here is that hitting the trifecta with an underdog is a great way to improve your return, so if you can do that, I highly recommend it.

Our Wild Card Winner was Lawrence, and he takes home $67.50. Congratulations Lawrence!

The current Postseason Podium is crowded:

  • Lawrence, 19 points
  • Ausame, 18 points
  • ChrisLivdahl, 18 points



A Surge!

It’s been a while friends. Sorry for my absence. Hopefully you all have been enjoying the podcasts instead (just search for Crowd Wisdom Sports).

Just wanted to say thanks to user meausa on Reddit who steered a lot of traffic our way in response to a post he submitted detailing his betting results. Quite a few people signed up, though maybe half submitted predictions. Still, it nearly doubled our prediction average, so we’ll take it!

To all you newcomers, thanks for joining the crowd! We hope you have fun (please feel free to e-mail if you’d like to see something – you all are like GOLD to us; we do our best to accommodate).



Postseason Contest Standings (Round 2)

We have updated our contest standings and have a new overall leader!

Postseason Standings

Overall Leaders:

  1. Bryan, 31
  2. Jason, 30
  3. Ellie, 30
  4. Garrett, 28

Divisional Round Leaders:

  1. Bryan, 15
  2. Garrett, 14
  3. Ellie, 14

Wild Card Weekend CPR: Even Split

Add your Divisional Round Predictions Now!

Wild Card Weekend was quite a rollercoaster for the crowd. It started off with an amazing comeback that resulted in wins against the spread and the total, then a complete whiff, followed by a WotC (pronounced Wahtzee!), followed by two fourth-quarter scores that resulted in losses against the spread and the total. I feel like the crowd deserves credit for getting a perfect mirror image of each day, but it’s hard to cash in on that.

Wild Card Weekend Net Results:

  • Weekly Pot: $51.19
  • Overall Pot: $51.19

Best Bet Results

There was really only one prediction for the whole weekend that we’d consider a best bet, and that was the under in the Bills-Jaguars game.

  • Vegas Total: 40
  • Crowd Predicted Total: 32.27 (almost 20% less)
  • Actual Total: 13

The 3 other games did not see much of a discrepancy between the Vegas total and the crowd’s prediction. The biggest discrepancy with the spread was in the Falcons-Rams game in which the crowd predicted a 7.3-point Rams win against a 5.5-point spread, but as we’ve discussed, we have yet to figure out a formula for determining the strength of the crowd prediction when it comes to the spread.

Titans-Chiefs Results (2 for 3)

Correct: Titans +8.5 (-110), Under 44.5 (-110); Incorrect: Chiefs ML (-420); Net: $38.18


The crowd had an interesting separation for this game. 6 users predicted a sizeable victory for the Chiefs, easily covering the 8.5-point spread (4 users predicted an 11-point win). 5 users predicted the Chiefs to win but fail to cover, and 3 users picked the Titans to win outright, with Bryan coming within a two-point conversion of an on-the-money prediction.

The users who predicted a Tennessee upset swung the crowd prediction to a win. As we’ve discussed a few times, the user who predicts a big underdog to win outright can outweigh multiple users who predict the favorite to cover by just a point or two. In this case, the 4 users who predicted an 11-point win for the Chiefs were neutralized by the user who predicted the Titans to win by 3 (4 users * 2.5 (11 points – 8.5) = 10  < 1 user * 11.5 (3 points + 8.5). The same goes for the other two extremes of the bell curve. Once the two extremes were balanced out, the crowd’s aggregate prediction was composed of the remaining predictions that foresaw a sizeable Chiefs win that didn’t cover the spread.

Falcons-Rams (0 for 3; Wabby)

Incorrect: Rams -5.5 (-115), Over 48 (-110); Rams ML (-250); Net: $0


The crowd had a much different split in the Falcons-Rams game compared to the Titans-Chiefs. Additionally, Jason, the lone Atlanta win predictor, was well outweighed by the predictor (who we’ll keep anonymous) who expected a huge Rams triumph. Once his pick was balanced out, the crowd prediction around the spread aggregated in a reasonably comfortable Rams win.

With respect to the total, the crowd prediction was JUST over the Vegas total, so when it comes to wagering, the smart move would be to hang on to your money until the crowd sees a bigger discrepancy, such as in the Bills-Jaguars game.

Bills-Jaguars (3-for-3; WotC!)

Correct: Bills +8.5 (-110); under 40 (-110); Jaguars ML (-420); Net: $50.56


The distribution of spreads in the Bills-Jaguars game was similar to Titans-Chiefs. A single predictor who saw the Bills winning balanced out the 4 folks who saw a big Jacksonville victory. Thus, the crowd aggregate landed right at 7 which ended up being the exact final spread.

Much more interesting in this game was the crowd’s prediction of the total. The crowd predicted a total of 32.27, almost 20% below the Vegas line of 40. Only one predictor saw a high-scoring game; every other predictor was at or below 40. The resulting crowd prediction was by far the strongest value play of the weekend, and it came through with room to spare with an actual total of 13.

Panthers-Saints (1 for 3)

Correct: Saints ML (-275); Incorrect: Saints -7 (-115), Under 48.5 (-110); Net: $13.64


The crowd had a few predictors that expected sizeable double-digit wins for the Saints. Unlike the other games, though, there was only one predictor who saw the Panthers winning, and that was insufficient to sway the crowd to a thread-the-needle result.  Nevertheless, the crowd saw a pretty close game (though lower scoring than what ultimately happened), and that is precisely what happened.