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Recap

2017 Week 4, Game 1 – Back to Normal?

If there is one thing that statistical analysis teaches us it is that one data point does not mean anything. However, the Thursday night game between the Bears and Packers went pretty much according to script, so it’ll be interesting to see how the rest of the weekend plays out.

The Game 1 CPR – 2 of 3

Correct: Straight Up, ATS; Incorrect: O/U

Across our 5 loyal predictors (thank you!), the crowd predicted an 11-point win for the Packers and a total of 41. The crowd was just one point off of the Bears’ actual total. Nice work!

Bad Beat: It’s hard to call the Bears touchdown in the fourth quarter a bad beat, but it is a little aggravating since our crowd predicted 41 points and would have been right on the money.

What is worth noting about that touchdown, though, is that it speaks to the concept of margin of safety. Our crowd predicted a total of 41 points and the Total was set at 45.5. The margin of safety there is just a field goal. We’re hoping that, over time, the crowd will be able to identify games in which the margin of safety is beyond the reach of a fluke score and track their performance over the course of the season.

For our curious readers, right now the crowd sees the biggest margin of safety for the Over/Under in:

  • 49ers-Cardinals: Under by 11 points
  • Washington-Chiefs: Under by 10 points
  • Panthers-Patriots: Over by 8 points
  • Bengals-Browns: Under by 7 points

Disagree with any of those? And leave a comment about why!

Also, please make sure to get your predictions in for Week 4!\

 

2017-week4-tnf

The Cynthia Frelund Experience

Cynthia Frelund’s (@cfrelund) crowd on Thursday nailed the trifecta and was on the money with respect to the Over/Under. The aggregation of 50 predictions resulted in an expected 10-point win for the Packers, and their 49-point total prediction was one point away from the actual.

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Recap

2017 Week 3 CPR: The Upside Down

On Friday I joked about waking up Friday morning wearing a bucket and signing over my house. Little did I know what was in store…

I wake up on Sunday morning and groggily remember that Baltimore and Jacksonville are playing already. My hand fumbles for the phone as I wonder whether the Londoners have been “treated” to another snoozer after which they wonder when Jacksonville will get relegated. My eyes grow as wide as dinner plates (for you Calvin and Hobbes fans out there) to see the Jaguars up 37-0 before going on to beat the best defense in the league 44-7. And thus began the weekend of the Upside Down.

In the end, there were 7 games that finished with a total between 50 and 70, and 2(!) games with a total of 80. One of those 80-burgers featured the Rams and 49ers, the latter having scored 12 points in their first two games combined. The average total through Weeks 1 and 2 was around 40, and the average for Week 3 was 52.

On top of that, 3 6-plus-point underdogs won outright, and the 13-point underdog Houston Texans took the Patriots to the final seconds before surrendering the lead.

So, all in all, I think it’s safe to say that this is the week of the outlier. I saw a couple of posts on Reddit (“This ends the F*ck What You Know Week” was my favorite) expressing something similar. My sense is that there are two of these a season, but I reserve the right to say at some point that 2017 is the season of outliers.

Do any outlier weeks from past seasons stand out to you? Leave a comment!

results-through-week3

CPR Week 3 Summary

  • Straight-up: 7-9
  • Against the Spread: 6-10
  • Over/Under: 7-9

CPR 2017 Overall

  • Straight-up: 28-19, 60%
  • Against the Spread: 16-31, 34%
  • Over/Under: 26-21, 56%

We were up to 9 predictions this week, so thank you to those who participated for the first time and to those who continue to help out.

The Cynthia Frelund Experience

The Twitter followers for Cynthia Frelund this week provided their score predictions for the Monday Night Game and came through well. The predicted total was 46.5 and that actual total was 47. They predicted Dallas to beat the Cardinals by about 2 points and the spread was 3, so the crowd missed the ATS number. In the end, the crowd didn’t identify a lot of value in either line, but they still went 2 for 3.

Crowd-wisest Prediction of the Week

This week’s game in which the crowd went 3-for-3 and had the best prognostication was the Cowboys at Cardinals.

PREDICTION CROWD ACTUAL
Winner Cowboys Cowboys
Spread Cowboys by 7 (spread was 3) Cowboys by 11
Over/Under 37 (under 47) 45

The other 3-for-3 game this week was Falcons-Lions, but the delta between the crowd total and the over-under line was less than 1 point, so we can’t really say that the crowd saw a lot of opportunity in this game.

Crowd-foolishest Prediction of the Week

Of course, for every two wise predictions, we figure that there will be one foolish prediction.

There were 4 games to choose from this week. This week’s winner for the discrepancy between the prediction and the actual was Steelers-Bears.

PREDICTION CROWD ACTUAL
Winner Steelers Bears
Spread Steelers (-7) by 14 Bears by 6
Over/Under 46 (over 44) 4

I can only chalk up the big gap in the predicted win to the perception of the Bears quality versus the Steelers, though certainly, a second look would indicate that the Steelers have not exactly set the world on fire yet this season.The other

The other notable miss was Seahawks-Titans because the actual total was twice the predicted total. However, the game was predicted to be close, so again, it’s not as clear that the crowd saw a lot of value. Also, until our crowd grows a bit bigger, Seattle games are always going to be discounted since most of our participants are from the Pacific Northwest and a bit biased.

Top Performers This Week

We had a 4-way tie for straight up winners this week which has to mean something, but who knows exactly what.

Straight-up

  • G.A. (9)
  • P.C. (9)
  • M.R. (9)
  • D.C. (9)

Against the Spread

  • M.R. (7)
  • D.C. (6)
  • G.A. (6)

Over/Under

  • C.A. (10)
  • P.C. (9)
  • E.P. (6)
  • G.A. (6)

Thanks for all the predictions! Keep up the good work!