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Podcast Recap

2020 Season – NFL Week 5 Recap

Week 5 Crowd Results

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We both are riding high after some big wins by our teams – plus the Lakers winning the bubble championship – and with both our teams hitting the bye, we wanted to take a moment to see where the league stands with between the have and have-nots.

2020 – Week 5 Recap – Episode 6 The Stakehouse Sports Podcast

Paul and Chris are back again and toasting two ripping victories for their teams. They also dive deeper into the haves and have-nots among NFL contenders while enjoying some Crater Lake Distillery Rye Whiskey.
  1. 2020 – Week 5 Recap – Episode 6
  2. 2020 – Week 4 Recap – Episode 5
  3. 2020 – Week 3 Recap – Episode 4
  4. 2020 – Week 2 Recap – Episode 3
  5. 2020 – Week 1 Recap – Episode 2
Listen to Stakehouse Sports on Apple Podcasts
Listen to Stakehouse Sports on Google Podcasts

Show Notes

Barrel Wagers & Whiskey

  • A barrel wager is a prediction in which we’re so confident we’d wager everything we own… but that if we get it wrong we’d be left wearing nothing but a barrel.
  • The Whiskey of the Week:
  • Crater Lake Straight American Rye Whiskey from Crater Lake Spirits
  • Distilled in Bend, OR
  • Distillers notes: Crater Lake Rye Whiskey hopes to revive the tradition of these small family brands that were lost during Prohibition. Crafted from 100% rye grain and pure Cascade Mountain water, the character of our rye is rich with deep toffee notes and a peppery spice that defines true American rye whiskey.
  • Paul – Falcons to cover the -1 spread vs the Panthers
    • I figured the Falcons would come out on fire with their backs against the wall, knowing a loss would drop them to 0-5 and likely cost their head coach his job
    • And they were playing at home against a division foe in the Panthers – even with some fans in the stands for the first time during this COVID season – even more motivation!
    • Couldn’t lose this one, right? RIGHT?
    • WRONG – Panthers dominated the game and won going away 23-16
    • Dan Quinn (and the GM) did get fired – guess they didn’t care that much whomp whomp
  • Chris – Steelers to cover the -7.5 against the Eagles
    • If you had told me that the Eagles would score 29 points, I definitely would have picked a different game.
    • My wager was saved by a career game from Chase Claypool who had 4 TDs including one with just 3 minutes to go to put the game away.
  • Chris is now ahead with a 2-3 record and Paul is a half-barrel behind at 1-3-1.

Crowd Results

Highlights and lowlights:

It was another feast of famine week for the crowd in week 5.

Bagels – Carb city – 5 bagels

  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers-Chicago Bears (3.5), total: 44.5; 19-20, Chicago Bears win, Chicago Bears cover (-1), Under 44.5 (39)
    • Crowd: 26.29-21.71; Tampa Bay Buccaneers win, Tampa Bay Buccaneers cover (4.57), Over 44.5 (48)
  • Buffalo Bills-Tennessee Titans (3), total: 53; 16-42, Tennessee Titans win, Tennessee Titans cover (-26), Over 53 (58)
    • Crowd: 24.57-20.43; Buffalo Bills win, Buffalo Bills cover (4.14), Under 53 (45)
  • Las Vegas Raiders-Kansas City Chiefs (-11.5), total: 54.5; 40-32, Las Vegas Raiders win, Las Vegas Raiders cover (8), Over 54.5 (72)
    • Crowd: 20.43-32; Kansas City Chiefs win, Kansas City Chiefs cover (-11.57), Under 54.5 (52.43)
  • Miami Dolphins-San Francisco 49ers (-8), total: 50.5; 43-17, Miami Dolphins win, Miami Dolphins cover (26), Over 50.5 (60)
    • Crowd: 18.71-27.14; San Francisco 49ers win, San Francisco 49ers cover (-8.43), Under 50.5 (45.86)
  • Indianapolis Colts-Cleveland Browns (-1), total: 49.5; 23-32, Cleveland Browns win, Cleveland Browns cover (-9), Over 49.5 (55)
    • Crowd: 23.57-22.14; Indianapolis Colts win, Indianapolis Colts cover (1.43), Under 49.5 (45.71)

Trifectas – 4 trifectas to balance the bagels

  • Arizona Cardinals-New York Jets (7), total: 47.5; 30-10, Arizona Cardinals win, Arizona Cardinals cover (20), Under 47.5 (40)
    • Crowd: 28.71-17; Arizona Cardinals win, Arizona Cardinals cover (11.71), Under 47.5 (45.71)
  • Carolina Panthers-Atlanta Falcons (-2.5), total: 54; 23-16, Carolina Panthers win, Carolina Panthers cover (7), Under 54 (39)
    • Crowd: 26.43-23.57; Carolina Panthers win, Carolina Panthers cover (2.86), Under 54 (50)
  • Los Angeles Rams-Washington Football Team (7), total: 46; 30-10, Los Angeles Rams win, Los Angeles Rams cover (20), Under 46 (40)
    • Crowd: 27.17-18.33; Los Angeles Rams win, Los Angeles Rams cover (8.83), Under 46 (45.5)
  • Los Angeles Chargers-New Orleans Saints (-7), total: 50; 27-30, New Orleans Saints win, Los Angeles Chargers cover (-3), Over 50 (57)
    • Crowd: 23.86-29.14; New Orleans Saints win, Los Angeles Chargers cover (-5.29), Over 50 (53)

Weekly Crowd Summary

  • Overall Crowd score for the week: 43 points
  • 9-5 straight-up
    • Record: 45-18 (70%, -1%)
  • 5-9 ATS
    • Record: 37-37-3 (50%, -3%)
  • 7-7 against the total
    • Record: 39-33-5 (54%, -1%)
  • 9 total predictors

Detailed Crowd Records

Here is a bit more detail about the crowd records:

  • Straight-up:
    • Favorites: 8-4 (49-20)
    • Underdogs: 1-1 (5-3)
  • Spread:
    • Favorites: 2-5 (16-17-3 overall)
    • Thread-the-needle: 2-3 (16-17 overall)
    • Underdog: 1-1 (5-3 overall)
  • Over-under:
    • Over: 1-2 (22-13-3)
    • Under: 6-5 (17-20-2)

Contest Results

  • MyBookie.ag Super Contest – 1.5-3.5 this week. Not the comeback we were hoping for.
    • Panthers +2.5 at Falcons – WIN
    • Rams -7.5 at Washington – WIN
    • Texans -5.5 vs Jaguars – WIN
    • Bengals +11.5 at the Ravens – LOSS
    • Browns +1.5 vs Colts – WIN
  • This was the mirror image of Week 2. In week 2 the crowd only picked 3 incorrectly and I somehow picked two for our Super Contest entry. This week, the crowd only got 5 correct, but we picked 4 for the Super Contest to bounce back from a couple of bad weeks and brings our record to .500 (12.5-12.5)

Hot Take Counter

We started last week after passing the quarter-pole of the season assessing the “authentic records” in each conference – meaning we take a look at each of the top contenders and debate whether or not they are actually a good team based on their opponents records and any really quality victories they’ve accumulated.

After just 4 games the data doesn’t reveal a whole lot as the contenders are, for the most part the “haves” while their opponents have been the “have-nots” so far with so few games played. This has certainly been true of the season so far.

But Week 5 did yield some interesting results with a couple really quality victories – most notably by the Raiders beating the Chiefs in KC, the Browns topping the Cols and the TItans just tonight with a big win over the Bills following Tennessee’s COVID outbreak drama.

We’ll start in the NFC though with my Seahawks who scored a thrilling victory on Sunday night over the Vikings on a last second TD to cap off a 94-yard drive with under 2 mins to go! This is an example of what I would consider a quality win over a team in the Vikings that is actually probably better than their record reveals. Their loss to the Seahawks drops them to a miserable 1-4 on the season, while the Seahawks move to 5-0 for the first time in franchise history.

The Vikings (and Lions), unsurprisingly have played the hardest schedule in the NFC and the 3rd toughest in the entire NFL after 5 weeks according to opponent records. And I gotta say Chris, they looked like the better team in that game against the Seahawks for much of the time – just not when it mattered most. I say all this to further illustrate that the concept of “Authentic Records” is always fully up for debate – even when it appears to be black-and-white.

Authentic Records

  • NFC
    • Seahawks
      • Wins – Falcons, Patriots, Cowboys, Dolphins, Vikings – Cumulative record of 5-15 (Opp Win %: 38%) (+34 net points)
    • Packers – BYE
      • Wins – Vikings, Lions, Saints, Falcons – (Opp Win %: 33%) (+51 net points)
    • Saints
      • Wins – Bucs, Lions, Chargers (Opp Win %: 57%) +3 net points
      • Losses – Packers
    • Bears
      • Wins – Lions, Giants, Falcons, Bucs – (Opp Win %: 32%) (+6 net points)
      • Losses – Colts
    • Rams
      • Wins – Cowboys, Eagles, Giants, Washington – (Opp Win %: 38%) (+46 net points)
      • Losses – Bills
    • 3-way tie at 3-2
  • AFC
    • Bills
      • Wins – Jets, Giants, Rams, Raiders (Opp Win %: 65%) (-3 net points)
      • Losses – Titans
    • Chiefs
      • Wins – Texans, Chargers, Ravens, Patriots (Opp Win %: 53%) (+39 net points) Best opponent record
      • Losses – Raiders
    • Steelers
      • Wins – Giants, Broncos, Texans, Eagles (Opp Win %: 24%) (+31 net points)
    • Titans
      • Wins – Broncos, Jaguars, Vikings, Bills (Opp Win %: 46%) (+32 net points)
    • Browns
      • Wins – Bengals, Cowboys, Washington, Colts – 3-9 (Opp Win %: 53%) (-2 net points)
      • Losses – Ravens
    • Ravens
      • Wins – Browns, Washington, Texans, Bengals – 4-8 (Opp Win %: 53%) (+49 net points)
      • Losses – Chiefs
    • Colts
      • Wins – Vikings, Bears, Jets – 4-8 (Opp Win %: 40%) (+47 net points)
      • Losses – Jaguars, Browns

Expert Analysis Analysis

Courtesy of Robert Sturgul who tracks many of the experts. 23 total individual predictors this week. Our crowd’s best bets performed the best in Week 5 with  36% 

Predictions SummaryWk5
Crowd Wisdom (Select)36.27%
Cynthia Frelund (NFL)20.62%
Lorenzo Rayes USA Today)12.58%
Chris Mueller (Yardbarker)10.67%
Crowd Wisdom7.58%
John Breech – CBS7.34%
Sports Interaction6.13%
Stats Insider5.21%
Tom Schad (USA Today)4.38%
Greg Rosenthal (NFL.com)1.97%
Todd Haislop (Sporting News)0.00%
Fantasy Guru (Twitter)-0.42%
Jarrett Bell (USA Today)-2.76%
Pete Prisco (CBS)-2.87%
Jori Epstein (USA Today)-3.59%
Sports Naut-4.73%
Nate Davis (USA Today)-7.84%
Crowd Confidence-9.80%
OddsShark-9.90%
Mike Jones (USA Today)-20.38%
Mike Middlehurst-Schwartz (USA Today)-22.82%
Vinnie Iyer (SportingNews)-26.03%
Colin Cowherd (Fox)-40.40%
Total Experts: 23

Remaining Games

  • Jacksonville Jaguars-Houston Texans (-5.5), total: 54.5; 14-30, Houston Texans win, Houston Texans cover (-16), Under 54.5 (44)
    • Crowd: 20.86-23.71; Houston Texans win, Jacksonville Jaguars cover (-2.86), Under 54.5 (44.57)
    • Correct: Texans win, Under 54.5
    • Incorrect: Jaguars cover (thread-the-needle prediction)
  • Philadelphia Eagles-Pittsburgh Steelers (-7), total: 44; 29-38, Pittsburgh Steelers win, Pittsburgh Steelers cover (-9), Over 44 (67)
    • Crowd: 19.14-24.86; Pittsburgh Steelers win, Philadelphia Eagles cover (-5.71), PUSH (44)
    • Correct: Steelers win
    • Incorrect: Eagles cover (thread-the-needle prediction), PUSH on the total
  • Cincinnati Bengals-Baltimore Ravens (-11.5), total: 50.5; 3-27, Baltimore Ravens win, Baltimore Ravens cover (-24), Under 50.5 (30)
    • Crowd: 20.14-29.71; Baltimore Ravens win, Cincinnati Bengals cover (-9.57), Under 50.5 (49.86)
    • Correct: Ravens win, Under 50.5
    • Incorrect: Bengals cover (another thread-the-needle prediction, but with a much larger eye hole)
  • New York Giants-Dallas Cowboys (-7.5), total: 52; 34-37, Dallas Cowboys win, New York Giants cover (-3), Over 52 (71)
    • Crowd: 21.29-28.14; Dallas Cowboys win, New York Giants cover (-6.86), Under 52 (49.43)
    • Correct: Cowboys win, Giants cover (yay a correct thread-the-needle!)
    • Incorrect: Under 52
  • Minnesota Vikings-Seattle Seahawks (-6.5), total: 54.5; 26-27, Seattle Seahawks win, Minnesota Vikings cover (-1), Under 54.5 (53)
    • Crowd: 22.86-31.57; Seattle Seahawks win, Seattle Seahawks cover (-8.71), Under 54.5 (54.43)
    • Correct: Seahawks win, Under 54.5 (by mere hundredths of a point)
    • Incorrect: Seahawks cover – should have known better after last season!

Winner winner chicken dinner!

Here’s who came out on top on our Leaderboards in Week 5.

  • Prediction Score: Chris pulled away from the crowd with a solid 59 prediction points
    • Straight-up: 10-4
    • ATS: 8-6
    • O/U: 10-4
    • 3 Bullseyes
  • Perfect Predictions (10-pointers):
    • Still no perfect predictions!
  • Stake Stacks of the Week: 
    • Biggest Stack – Bryan Cole
      • Netted 15 stakes off 81 wagered which was good for an 18.5% ROI
    • Best ROI
      • Paul comes out on top in the Return-on-Investment department netting 12 stakes off only 30 wagered – good for a brisk 40% return – not too shabby!

Overall Leaderboards

  • Prediction score
    • Bryan Cole on top with 297 total points
    • Chris close behind with 293
    • Paul a distant 3rd place with 261
  • Stakes
    • Gemma Aronchick leading the ROI with an impressive 24.4% from 119 stakes wagered
    • Bryan Cole with the biggest overall stake stack by a mile with 51, but took him 328 stakes wagered to get there (for a still solid 15.5% ROI)

Wrap-up

Head over to stakehousesports.com to download the app and start predicting (or predict using our web app. Remember, you can win up to $50 a week in Amazon gift cards as well as a prestigious shout-out on this here program. Odds update daily, so make sure to check your predictions before gametime.

You can also follow us on Twitter using handle @houseofstakes, and on Facebook at facebook.com/stakehousesports. And you can always contact us at podcast@stakehousesports.com.

Categories
Podcast Recap

2020 Season – NFL Week 2 Recap

Chris flies solo this week as Paul is recovering from a well-earned vacation. Week 2 was an absolutely outstanding week for our crowd and perhaps an unbeatable individual performance by one of our competitors, but it unfortunately also featured some truly devastating injuries. I’ll cover all the results and cover what the injuries mean to the league.

2020 – Week 5 Recap – Episode 6 The Stakehouse Sports Podcast

Paul and Chris are back again and toasting two ripping victories for their teams. They also dive deeper into the haves and have-nots among NFL contenders while enjoying some Crater Lake Distillery Rye Whiskey.
  1. 2020 – Week 5 Recap – Episode 6
  2. 2020 – Week 4 Recap – Episode 5
  3. 2020 – Week 3 Recap – Episode 4
  4. 2020 – Week 2 Recap – Episode 3
  5. 2020 – Week 1 Recap – Episode 2
Listen to Stakehouse Sports on Apple Podcasts
Listen to Stakehouse Sports on Google Podcasts

Show Notes

Barrel Wagers & Whiskey

  • A barrel wager is a prediction in which we’re so confident we’d wager everything we own… but that if we get it wrong we’d be left wearing nothing but a barrel.
  • The Whiskey of the Week: Bad Dog Distillery out of Arlington, Washington, about an hour north of Seattle. I’m drinking their Grandpa’s Rye and it is quite tasty. I highly recommend it.
  • Chris – Chiefs to cover the 9.5 at the Chargers
    • I said in my tweet that picking another road barrel wager might cost me my shirt, and sure enough, that’s what happened.
  • Paul – Rams to beat the Eagles
    • The Eagles might be in real trouble having dropped their first two games and looking pretty bad doing it.
  • So Paul takes the 1-barrel lead going into Week 3 as he is now at 1-1 while I am 0-2.

Crowd Results

Highlights and lowlights:

  • Bagels – No bagels again this week. Keep up the good work!
  • Trifectas – 7!
    • Detroit Lions-Green Bay Packers (-6), total: 50; 21-42, Green Bay Packers win, Green Bay Packers cover (-21), Over 50 (63)
      • Crowd: 20.67-30; Green Bay Packers win, Green Bay Packers cover (-9.33), Over 50 (50.67)
    • (Thread the needle) Atlanta Falcons-Dallas Cowboys (-3.5), total: 53.5; 39-40, Dallas Cowboys win, Atlanta Falcons cover (-1), Over 53.5 (79)
      • Crowd: 25.89-27.78; Dallas Cowboys win, Atlanta Falcons cover (-1.89), Over 53.5 (53.67)
    • San Francisco 49ers-New York Jets (7), total: 41.5; 31-13, San Francisco 49ers win, San Francisco 49ers cover (18), Over 41.5 (44)
      • Crowd: 28-15.56; San Francisco 49ers win, San Francisco 49ers cover (12.44), Over 41.5 (43.56)
    • Los Angeles Rams-Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5), total: 45.5; 37-19, Los Angeles Rams win, Los Angeles Rams cover (18), Over 45.5 (56)
      • Crowd: 28.33-23.33; Los Angeles Rams win, Los Angeles Rams cover (5), Over 45.5 (51.67)
    • Carolina Panthers-Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-8.5), total: 47; 17-31, Tampa Bay Buccaneers win, Tampa Bay Buccaneers cover (-14), Over 47 (48)
      • Crowd: 19.33-28.78; Tampa Bay Buccaneers win, Tampa Bay Buccaneers cover (-9.44), Over 47 (48.11)
    • Washington Football Team-Arizona Cardinals (-7), total: 46.5; 15-30, Arizona Cardinals win, Arizona Cardinals cover (-15), Under 46.5 (45)
      • Crowd: 18.13-25.5; Arizona Cardinals win, Arizona Cardinals cover (-7.37), Under 46.5 (43.63)
    • New England Patriots-Seattle Seahawks (-4), total: 44.5; 30-35, Seattle Seahawks win, Seattle Seahawks cover (-5), Over 44.5 (65)
      • Crowd: 23.33-29.22; Seattle Seahawks win, Seattle Seahawks cover (-5.89), Over 44.5 (52.56)

Weekly Crowd Summary

  • Overall Crowd score for the week: 76(!) points
  • 15-1 straight-up
    • Off to a nice start with a 68.75% winning percentage straight-up
    • All but 1 favorite won this week
    • Record: 26-6 (81%)
  • 13-3 ATS
    • Record: 19-13 (61%)
  • 10-6 against the total
    • Record: 17-15 (57%)
  • 9 total predictors

Detailed Crowd Records

Crowd Records so far:

  • Straight-up:
    • Favorites: 15-1 (Year-to-date: 25-6)
    • Underdogs: 1-0 (YTD: 1-0)
  • Spread:
    • Favorites: 6-2 (7-4-1)
    • Thread-the-needle: 6-1 (YTD: 10-8)
    • Underdog: 1-0 (YTD: 2-0)
  • Over-under:
    • Over: 8-2-1 (YTD: 12-6-1)
    • Under: 2-3 (YTD: 5-7-1)

Contest Results

  • Contest Results:
    • MyBookie.ag Super Contest – 3-2 again this week
      • Rams +1 at the Eagles – Win
      • Vikings +3 at the Colts – Loss
      • Packers -6 vs. the Lions – Win
      • Chiefs -9.5 at the Chargers – Loss
      • Seahawks -4 vs the Patriots – Win
      • So far, we’re 6-4; Good, but we’ll need a couple of more good weeks to climb the charts

Hot Take Counter

Week 2 was just an absolutely brutal week of injuries.

In the West – Paul and my divisions – the 49ers suffered an ungodly amount of injuries: Nick Bosa and Solomon Thomas on defense and Raheem Mostert and Jimmy Garapolo on offense. In Denver, Cortland Sutton and Drew Locke both suffered injuries as well. Both of those teams seasons are now in real jeopardy barely before they begin.

Additional tragic injuries included Saquon Barkley; the Eagles had a slew of injures; Christian McCaffrey is out 4-6 weeks with an ankle injury; the Cowboys have lost almost every starting lineman; and Tyrrod Taylor got a punctured lung from the team doctor, the list goes on.

The hot take here is that I heard multiple times people connecting the lack of a preseason with the injuries. This is a ridiculous take. Injuries happen every year. The injury that took down Nick Bosa and Saquon Barkley were freak events. There is no way to connect the lack of a preseason to those injuries with any real evidence at all. All of these injuries are tragic, but to try to explain them as anything other than bad luck is ridiculous at this point. I could point to two dozen injuries off the top of my head that happened early in the season to superstars after a full preseason, so you have to stop trying to explain injuries as anything other than bad luck.

But it goes to show that, just like the NHL, NBA, and MLB, the NFL season is going to be a war of attrition, but that’s kind of how it is every year. In general, the team that both plays consistently well and has good injury luck makes it through to and usually deep into the postseason. There is no reason to think that this season will be any different.

Winner winner chicken dinner!

Here’s who came out on top on our Leaderboards in Week 2.

  • Prediction Score: Bryan Cole with 76 points
    • Straight-up: 15
    • ATS: 12
    • O/U: 11
  • Stake Stacks of the Week: 
    • Split decision this week
    • Biggest Stack
      • Gemma with 29 net stakes off 61 total stakes wagered
    • Best ROI
      • Paul – 100%(!) ROI off 21 stakes wagered

Wrap-up

Head over to stakehousesports.com to download the app and start predicting (or predict using our web app. Remember, you can win up to $50 a week in Amazon gift cards as well as a prestigious shout-out on this here program. Odds update daily, so make sure to check your predictions before gametime.

You can also follow us on Twitter using handle @houseofstakes, and on Facebook at facebook.com/stakehousesports. And you can always contact us at podcast@stakehousesports.com.

Categories
Recap

NFL Week 3 Total Line Movement Results

Here’s how the total line movement played out against the actual results.

All odds provided by Pinnacle.

Just a reminder of terminology:

  • Open date: 1 week prior to game day
  • Mid: Any change between open and 1 day prior to game day
  • Late: Any change 1 day prior to game day

Summary

At this point, it doesn’t appear that there is much of a trend in one direction or the other, so tailing the movements does not make sense.

  • Midweek line adjustments: 6-8 (-2) (YTD: 18-23 (-5))
  • Late line adjustments: 5-3 (+2) (YTD: 13-11 (+2))
WeekAwayHomeOpen DateOpenMidweekLateMid $Late $Final TotalMid CorrectLate CorrectLink
3DolphinsJaguars9/2247.54849OverOver45-1-1Game
3TitansVikings9/2247.54949OverNA6110Game
3RaidersPatriots9/2245.54747OverNA5410Game
3BearsFalcons9/2247.54747UnderNA56-10Game
3BengalsEagles9/2246.54647UnderOver461-1Game
349ersGiants9/22414142NAOver4501Game
3TexansSteelers9/22454546NAOver4901Game
3WashingtonBrowns9/22444545OverNA5410Game
3RamsBills9/2247.54746UnderUnder67-1-1Game
3PanthersChargers9/22444343UnderNA3710Game
3JetsColts9/2243.54444OverNA43-10Game
3LionsCardinals9/2254.55555OverNA49-10Game
3CowboysSeahawks9/2255.55556UnderOver69-11Game
3BuccaneersBroncos9/2243.54342UnderUnder3811Game
3PackersSaints9/22535252UnderNA67-10Game
3ChiefsRavens9/2254.55554OverUnder54-11Game

Source for Odds: Pinnacle

Categories
Recap

NFL Week 3 Spread Line Movement Results

Here’s how the line movement played out against the actual results.

All odds were provided by Pinnacle.

Just a reminder of terminology:

Open date: 1 week prior to game day

Mid: Any change between open and 1 day prior to game day

Late: Any change 1 day prior to game day

Summary

  • Midweek line adjustments: 7-2 (+5) (YTD: 23-10 (+13))
  • Late line adjustments: 2-4 (-2) (YTD: 12-9 (+3))

Looks like the midweek line moves have a pretty good trend so far, so it might be worth tailing those.

WeekAwayHomeOpen DateOpenMidweekLateMid $Late $Final SpreadMid CorrectLate CorrectLink
3Miami DolphinsJacksonville Jaguars9/22-2.5-2.5-3NAFavorite180-1Game
3Tennessee TitansMinnesota Vikings9/222.52.52.5NANA-100Game
3Las Vegas RaidersNew England Patriots9/22-6.5-5-5.5UnderdogFavorite-16-11Game
3Chicago BearsAtlanta Falcons9/22-3.5-3-3.5UnderdogFavorite41-1Game
3Cincinnati BengalsPhiladelphia Eagles9/22-6.5-4.5-4.5UnderdogNA010Game
3San Francisco 49ersNew York Giants9/224.54.53.5NAUnderdog-270-1Game
3Houston TexansPittsburgh Steelers9/22-3.5-4-4FavoriteNA-710Game
3Washington Football TeamCleveland Browns9/22-7-7-7NANA-1400Game
3Los Angeles RamsBuffalo Bills9/22-2.5-2.5-2.5NANA-300Game
3Carolina PanthersLos Angeles Chargers9/22-7.5-6.5-6.5UnderdogNA510Game
3New York JetsIndianapolis Colts9/22-10.5-11.5-12.5FavoriteFavorite-2911Game
3Detroit LionsArizona Cardinals9/22-5.5-5.5-5.5NANA300Game
3Dallas CowboysSeattle Seahawks9/22-4.5-5-5FavoriteNA-710Game
3Tampa Bay BuccaneersDenver Broncos9/22665NAUnderdog-180-1Game
3Green Bay PackersNew Orleans Saints9/22-3.5-3-3UnderdogNA710Game
3Kansas City ChiefsBaltimore Ravens9/22-3-3.5-3.5FavoriteNA14-10Game

Source for Odds: Pinnacle

Categories
Recap

NFL Week 2 Total Line Movement Results

Here’s how the total line movement played out against the actual results.

This is the last week we’ll be using Oddsshark. Starting this week we’ll switch to Pinnacle.

Just a reminder of terminology:

  • Open date: 1 week prior to game day
  • Mid: Any change between open and 1 day prior to game day
  • Late: Any change 1 day prior to game day

Summary

  • Midweek line adjustments: 6-10 (-4) (YTD: 12-15 (-3))
  • Late line adjustments: 3-8 (-5) (YTD: 8-8 (+0))
WeekAwayHomeOpenMidLateMid $Late $FinalMid CorrectLate CorrectChart Link
2Cincinnati BengalsCleveland Browns4643.543.5UnderNA65-10Game
2Detroit LionsGreen Bay Packers4649.549.5OverNA6310Game
2New York GiantsChicago Bears434242UnderNA3010Game
2Jacksonville JaguarsTennessee Titans434244UnderOver63-11Game
2Atlanta FalconsDallas Cowboys505453.5OverUnder791-1Game
2San Francisco 49ersNew York Jets43.542.541.5UnderUnder44-1-1Game
2Los Angeles RamsPhiladelphia Eagles484645.5UnderUnder56-1-1Game
2Carolina PanthersTampa Bay Buccaneers48.547.547.5UnderNA51-10Game
2Denver BroncosPittsburgh Steelers4341.540.5UnderUnder47-1-1Game
2Minnesota VikingsIndianapolis Colts464849OverOver39-1-1Game
2Buffalo BillsMiami Dolphins4341.541UnderUnder59-1-1Game
2Washington Football TeamArizona Cardinals4647.546.5OverUnder45-11Game
2Kansas City ChiefsLos Angeles Chargers50.547.547.5UnderNA4310Game
2Baltimore RavensHouston Texans5351.550UnderUnder4911Game
2New England PatriotsSeattle Seahawks444544.5OverUnder651-1Game
2New Orleans SaintsLas Vegas Raiders50.549.548.5UnderUnder58-1-1Game

Source for Odds: Oddsshark.com

Categories
Recap

NFL Week 2 Spread Line Movement Results

Hi all, Here’s how the line movement played out against the actual results.

This is the last week I’ll be using Oddsshark. Starting this week we’ll switch to Pinnacle.

Just a reminder of terminology:

  • Open date: 1 week prior to game day
  • Mid: Any change between open and 1 day prior to game day
  • Late: Any change 1 day prior to game day

Summary

  • Midweek line adjustments: 10-4 (+6) (YTD: 16-8 (+8))
  • Late line adjustments: 6-3 (+3) (YTD: 11-5 (+6))
WeekAwayHomeOpenMidLateMid $Late $FinalMid CorrectLate CorrectChart Link
2Cincinnati BengalsCleveland Browns-7.5-6-6UnderdogNA-510Game
2Detroit LionsGreen Bay Packers-6-6.5-6FavoriteUnderdog-211-1Game
2New York GiantsChicago Bears-5.5-5.5-5.5NANA-400Game
2Jacksonville JaguarsTennessee Titans-11-9-7.5UnderdogUnderdog-311Game
2Atlanta FalconsDallas Cowboys-7-4.5-4UnderdogUnderdog-111Game
2San Francisco 49ersNew York Jets677FavoriteNA1810Game
2Los Angeles RamsPhiladelphia Eagles-3.510UnderdogFavorite181-1Game
2Carolina PanthersTampa Bay Buccaneers-8-9.5-8.5FavoriteUnderdog141-1Game
2Denver BroncosPittsburgh Steelers-6-7.5-7FavoriteUnderdog-5-11Game
2Minnesota VikingsIndianapolis Colts-2.5-3-3FavoriteNA-1710Game
2Buffalo BillsMiami Dolphins3.55.55.5FavoriteNA3-10Game
2Washington Football TeamArizona Cardinals-6.5-6.5-7NAFavorite-1501Game
2Kansas City ChiefsLos Angeles Chargers6.58.58.5FavoriteNA3-10Game
2Baltimore RavensHouston Texans5.577.5FavoriteFavorite1711Game
2New England PatriotsSeattle Seahawks-3.5-4-4FavoriteNA-510Game
2New Orleans SaintsLas Vegas Raiders4.55.55.5FavoriteNA-10-10Game

Source for Odds: Oddsshark.com

Categories
Podcast Recap

2020 Season – NFL Week 1 Recap

This week, with just one game in the books, we’ll speculate wildly about the fates of more than a few teams and talk about who is on their way to the top and who has a steep climb ahead. We’ll also talk about what we expect in Week 2 and what unexpected things we should expect.

2020 – Week 5 Recap – Episode 6 The Stakehouse Sports Podcast

Paul and Chris are back again and toasting two ripping victories for their teams. They also dive deeper into the haves and have-nots among NFL contenders while enjoying some Crater Lake Distillery Rye Whiskey.
  1. 2020 – Week 5 Recap – Episode 6
  2. 2020 – Week 4 Recap – Episode 5
  3. 2020 – Week 3 Recap – Episode 4
  4. 2020 – Week 2 Recap – Episode 3
  5. 2020 – Week 1 Recap – Episode 2
Listen to Stakehouse Sports on Apple Podcasts
Listen to Stakehouse Sports on Google Podcasts

Show Notes

Barrel Wagers & Whiskey

  • A barrel wager is a prediction in which we’re so confident we’d wager everything we own… but that if we get it wrong we’d be left wearing nothing but a barrel.
  • Whiskey: 2Bar Straight Bourbon whiskey (same as last week)… reminder it’s from 2Bar Distillery right here in smokey Seattle
  • Chris: Bucs to beat the Saints (cover as underdogs)
    • I have way more faith in Tom Brady than I probably should after watching him rip my heart out for 20 years.
    • At the end of the day, he had a pretty bad game, just 240 yards, 2 TDs and 2 INTs .
    • Not sure if it’s just newness with his team, but it was a trap from the get go, and I won’t fall for that again.
  • Paul: Titans to cover the -3-point spread in Denver
  • We’re both off to a rough start at 0-1 out of the gate

Crowd Results

Highlights and lowlights:

  • Bagels – No bagels this week. The crowd got at least one category correct in every game. Nice start!
  • Trifectas – Cowboys at Rams
    • Crowd Prediction: DAL 24, LAR 25 (Rams win and cover as an underdog, under 51.5)
    • Actual Score: DAL 17, LAR 20

Weekly Crowd Summary

  • Overall Crowd score for the week: 49 points
  • 11-5 straight-up
    • Off to a nice start with a 68.75% winning percentage straight-up
  • 6-9-1 ATS
    • The crowd had a really tough time with the spread this week
    • With a small crowd (only 8 total predictors), the average can be skewed pretty easily by one prediction.
    • Also it’s week 1 of a season like we’ve never seen, so not too surprising that the crowd wisdom struggled.
    • We’re starting off in a deep hole with only a 40% winning percentage ATS, but plenty of time to recover obviously
  • 7-8-1 against the total
    • The over-under went the way of Goldilocks in week 1 and starts off the crowd with a not bad, but not good 46.67% winning percentage (when accounting for the push)
  • 8 total predictors

Detailed Crowd Records

Crowd Records so far:

  • Straight-up:
    • Favorites: 10-5
    • Underdogs: 1-0
  • Spread:
    • Favorites: 1-2-1
    • Thread-the-needle: 4-7
    • Underdog: 1-0
  • Over-under:
    • Over: 4-4
    • Under: 3-4-1

Contest Results

  • Contest Results:
    • NFL Pickwatch – it’s a little too early to start talking about seeding (won’t start doing this until maybe week 7-8 or so) but we’ll keep track of the crowd’s running record and see where that would land in Pickwatch’s overall leaderboards of both public users and experts
      • Straight-up overall record: 11-5 (68.75%)
      • ATS overall record: 6-9-1 (40%)
    • MyBookie.ag Super Contest – 3-2 this week
      • Panthers +3 versus the Raiders – Loss
      • Seahawks -1 at the Falcons – Win
      • Jaguars +8 versus the Colts – Win
      • Cardinals +6.5 at the Niners – Win
      • Bucs +3.5 at the Saints – Loss
      • So far, we’re 3-2, which is better than the alternative.

Hot Take Counter

Expect the unexpected! Week 1 promised to be an “anyone’s best guess” kind of week, and it mostly was… there were some predictable outcomes for sure, but also some upsets that felt surprising to most… Let’s start with the mostly-expected results with the teams that seem well on their way to the top after a solid first week:

  • Who’s well on their way to  the top
    • Seahawks, Packers, Ravens, Chiefs, Saints
      • All had very impressive performances in their Week 1 wins.
      • They either turned in dominant wins at home or solid wins on the road.
  • Who has a steep climb ahead of them
    • This is mostly about expectations; if you had high expectations for this season, did they take a big hit?
    • Colts, Browns, Lions, Eagles, Niners
    • They either lost to teams that were projected to be worse or performed very poorly overall.

Winner winner chicken dinner!

Here’s who came out on top on our Leaderboards in Week 1.

  • Prediction Score: Jordan and Chris tie with 59 total points
    • Straight-up: 10 for Jordan, 11 for Chris
    • ATS: 7 for Jordan, 9 for Chris
    • O/U: 10 for Jordan, 8 for Chris
    • Jordan hit 5 bull’s-eyes to Chris’ 3
  • Perfect Predictions (10-pointers):
    • No perfect predictions this week
  • Stake Stacks of the Week: 
    • Jordan had the best week at the Stakes Table winning both the biggest stake stack and the best ROI
    • Biggest Stack
      • Jordan – 12 net stakes on 40 stakes wagered, edging out Bryan Cole
    • Best ROI
      • Jordan – Those 12 net stakes also returned a 30% return on investment

Wrap-up

Head over to stakehousesports.com to download the app and start predicting (or predict using our web app. Remember, you can win up to $50 a week in Amazon gift cards as well as a prestigious shout-out on this here program. Odds update daily, so make sure to check your predictions before gametime.

You can also follow us on Twitter using handle @houseofstakes, and on Facebook at facebook.com/stakehousesports. And you can always contact us at podcast@stakehousesports.com.

Categories
Recap

NFL Week 1 Total Line Movement Results

We got some good responses from the Spread line movement post yesterday, so I will also post my analysis of the line movement for the totals.

A few terminology definitions:

  • Open date: 1 week prior to game day
  • Mid: Any change between open and 1 day prior to game day
  • Late: Any change 1 day prior to game day

Summary:

  • Midweek line adjustments: 6-5 (+1)
  • Late line adjustments: 5-0 (+5)
AwayHomeOpenMinLateMid $Late $Final TotalMid CorrectLate Correct
HOUKC53.55454OverNA5410
GBMIN4644.544.5UnderNA77-10
MIANE434241.5UnderUnder3211
CHIDET444242.5UnderOver50-11
SEAATL494949NANA6300
PHIWAS434242UnderNA44-10
INDJAC454545NANA4700
CLEBAL48.54847.5UnderUnder4411
NYJBUF39.539.539.5NANA4400
LVCAR47.547.548.5NAOver6401
LACCIN4441.541.5UnderNA2910
ARISF47.54848OverNA44-10
TBNO49.547.547.5UnderNA57-10
DALLAR5251.551.5UnderNA3710
PITNYG47.54645UnderUnder4211
TENDEN414141NANA3000

Source for Odds: Oddsshark.com

Categories
Recap

NFL Week 1 Spread Line Movement Results

We will be tracking the spread line movements for the NFL this season to see if there is any indication of line movement and value.

Here are a few terminology definitions:

Open date: 1 week prior to game day

Mid: Any change between open and 1 day prior to game day

Late: Any change 1 day prior to game day

Summary:

  • Midweek line adjustments: 6-3 (+3)
  • Late line adjustments: 5-2 (+3)
WeekAwayHomeOpenMidLateMid $Late $FinalMid CorrectLate CorrectChart Link
1HOUKC-9.5-9-9UnderdogNA-1400Game
1LVCAR2.533FavoriteNA410Game
1CLEBAL-8-7-7.5UnderdogFavorite-32-11Game
1INDJAC7.588UnderdogNA-7-10Game
1CHIDET-1.5-3-2.5FavoriteUnderdog4-11Game
1MIANE-6-6.5-7FavoriteFavorite-1011Game
1PHIWAS65.55.5UnderdogNA-1010Game
1NYJBUF-6.5-6.5-6.5NANA-1000Game
1GBMIN2.52.52.5NANA900Game
1SEAATL12.51FavoriteUnderdog131-1Game
1LACCIN333NANA300Game
1ARISF-7-7-6.5NAUnderdog401Game
1TBNO333NANA-1100Game
1DALLAR32.52UnderdogUnderdog-311Game
1PITNYG4.566FavoriteNA1010Game
1TENDEN2.52.53NAFavorite20-1Game

Source for Odds: Oddsshark.com

Categories
Podcast

2020 Season – NFL Regular Season Predictions

This week, we’re going to add to the many season-win predictions before the 2020 NFL season kicks off. We’ll talk about who we like to make it to the playoffs, but most importantly, we’ll talk about why we’ll almost certainly be wrong. We also enjoy some 2Bar Whiskey along the way.

2020 – Week 5 Recap – Episode 6 The Stakehouse Sports Podcast

Paul and Chris are back again and toasting two ripping victories for their teams. They also dive deeper into the haves and have-nots among NFL contenders while enjoying some Crater Lake Distillery Rye Whiskey.
  1. 2020 – Week 5 Recap – Episode 6
  2. 2020 – Week 4 Recap – Episode 5
  3. 2020 – Week 3 Recap – Episode 4
  4. 2020 – Week 2 Recap – Episode 3
  5. 2020 – Week 1 Recap – Episode 2

Stakehouse Sports on Google Play Music Listen on Apple Podcasts

Show Notes

We are so psyched that the NFL got itself organized and has shown that responsible behavior can limit the spread of COVID-19.

With that out of the way, here are the notes from our NFL Season Preview episode:

Whiskey of the Week

  • Our whiskey of the week is the Straight Bourbon Whiskey from 2Bar Spirits.

Other Contests

As we did last season, we’ll be testing our crowd’s predicting prowess in a couple open “supercontests”… We’ll take the crowd’s final aggregate score predictions for each game compared to the same consensus betting lines we use to calculate our scoring model and apply this “crowd wisdom” in a real-world scenario.

NFL Pickwatch (Paul)

  • Our crowd’s picks straight-up and ATS plugged into NFL Pickwatch to see how they stack up against all the other predictors and experts tracked by Pickwatch
  • Not using crowd picks for the supercontest because it would be way too complicated (involves wagering virtual PW “coins”)

MyBookie Super Contest (Chris)

  • We will use a secret formula/methodology to determine our crowd’s 5 “best picks” of each week to make picks in the MyBookie.ag super contest.
  • Here’s the rub: If the crowd cromes through and we end up in the money, we’ll be sharing the prize money with our overall winners. The more people we have, the better the crowd wisdom, so make sure to tell your friends!

Division-by-Division Preview

AFC East

  • Paul:
    • Buf: 9-7, NE: 7-9, MIA: 3-13, NYJ: 3-13
  • Chris:
    • Buf: 9-7, NE: 9-7, MIA: 6-10, NYJ: 5-11
      • Buffalo takes the division with a better division record

AFC West:

  • Chris
    • KC: 13-3, LV: 7-9, DEN: 6-10, LAC: 4-12
  • Paul
    • KC: 12-4, DEN: 7-9, LV: 7-9, LAC: 6-10

AFC North:

  • Paul:
    • BAL: 11-5, PIT: 9-7, CIN: 5-11, CLE: 3-13
  • Chris:
    • BAL: 14-2, PIT: 12-4, CLE: 6-10, CIN: 4-12

AFC South:

  • Chris:
    • IND: 10-6, HOU: 10-6, TEN: 8-8, JAC: 3-13
  • Paul:
    • TEN: 12-4, HOU: 12-4, IND: 10-6, JAC: 3-13

AFC Playoff Standings (Chris)

  1. BAL (14-2)
  2. KC (13-3)
  3. IND (10-6)
  4. BUF (9-7, 5-1 in division)
  5. PIT (12-4)
  6. HOU (10-6)
  7. NE (9-7)

AFC Playoff Seedings (Paul)

  1. Tennessee Titans (12-4, 10-2 CONF, South Winner)
  2. Kansas City Chiefs (12-4, 9-3 CONF, West Winner)
  3. Baltimore Ravens (11-5, 7-5 CONF, North Winner)
  4. Buffalo Bills (9-7, 8-4 CONF, East Winner)
  5. Houston Texans (12-4, 8-4 CONF)
  6. Indianapolis Colts (10-6, 8-4 CONF)
  7. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7, 8-4 CONF)

And now on to the NFC…

NFC East:

  • Chris:
    • DAL: 10-6, PHI: 6-10, NYG: 4-12, WAS: 2-14
  • Paul:
    • DAL: 11-5, PHI: 10-6, NYG: 4-12, WAS: 3-13

NFC West:

  • Paul:
    • SF: 13-3, SEA: 11-5, LAR: 10-6, ARI: 7-9
  • Chris:
    • SF: 13-3, SEA: 12-4, LAR: 11-5, ARI: 5-11

NFC North:

  • Chris:
    • GB: 13-3, MIN: 7-9, CHI: 4-12, DET: 3-13
  • Paul:
    • GB-13-3, MIN 9-7, CHI: 6-10, DET: 4-12

NFC South:

  • Paul:
    • NO: 12-4, TB: 10-6, ATL: 7-9, CAR: 6-10
  • Chris:
    • TB: 13-3, NO: 13-3, ATL: 9-7, CAR: 2-14

NFC Playoff Seedings (Chris)

  1. SF (13-3, 10-2 in Conf)
  2. GB (13-3)
  3. TB (13-3)
  4. DAL (10-6)
  5. NO (13-3)
  6. SEA (12-4)
  7. LAR (11-5)

NFC Playoff Seedings (Paul)

  1. Green Bay Packers (13-3, 11-1 CONF, North Winner)
  2. SF 49ers (13-3, 9-3 CONF, West Winner)
  3. NO Saints (12-4, 8-4 CONF, South Winner)
  4. Dallas Cowboys (11-5, 8-4 CONF, East Winner)
  5. Seattle Seahawks (11-5, 7-5 CONF)
  6. Philadelphia Eagles (10-6, 7-5 CONF)
  7. Tampa Bay Bucs (10-6, 7-5 CONF)

(Rams just missing out also 10-6 but 6-6 in CONF)

Wrap-up

Head over to stakehousesports.com to download the app and start predicting (or predict using our web app. Remember, you can win up to $50 a week in Amazon gift cards as well as a prestigious shout-out on this here program. Odds update daily, so make sure to check your predictions before gametime.

You can also follow us on Twitter using handle @houseofstakes, and on Facebook at facebook.com/stakehousesports. And you can always contact us at podcast@stakehousesports.com.