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We both are riding high after some big wins by our teams – plus the Lakers winning the bubble championship – and with both our teams hitting the bye, we wanted to take a moment to see where the league stands with between the have and have-nots.

Show Notes

Barrel Wagers & Whiskey

• A barrel wager is a prediction in which we’re so confident we’d wager everything we own… but that if we get it wrong we’d be left wearing nothing but a barrel.

• The Whiskey of the Week:

• Crater Lake Straight American Rye Whiskey from Crater Lake Spirits
• Distilled in Bend, OR
• Distillers notes: Crater Lake Rye Whiskey hopes to revive the tradition of these small family brands that were lost during Prohibition. Crafted from 100% rye grain and pure Cascade Mountain water, the character of our rye is rich with deep toffee notes and a peppery spice that defines true American rye whiskey.
• Paul – Falcons to cover the -1 spread vs the Panthers
  • I figured the Falcons would come out on fire with their backs against the wall, knowing a loss would drop them to 0-5 and likely cost their head coach his job
  • And they were playing at home against a division foe in the Panthers – even with some fans in the stands for the first time during this COVID season – even more motivation!
  • Couldn’t lose this one, right? RIGHT?
  • WRONG – Panthers dominated the game and won going away 23-16
  • Dan Quinn (and the GM) did get fired – guess they didn’t care that much whomp whomp
• Chris – Steelers to cover the -7.5 against the Eagles
  • If you had told me that the Eagles would score 29 points, I definitely would have picked a different game.
  • My wager was saved by a career game from Chase Claypool who had 4 TDs including one with just 3 minutes to go to put the game away.
• Chris is now ahead with a 2-3 record and Paul is a half-barrel behind at 1-3-1.

Crowd Results

Highlights and lowlights:

It was another feast of famine week for the crowd in week 5.

Bagels – Carb city – 5 bagels

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers-Chicago Bears (3.5), total: 44.5; 19-20, Chicago Bears win, Chicago Bears cover (-1), Under 44.5 (39)
  • Crowd: 26.29-21.71; Tampa Bay Buccaneers win, Tampa Bay Buccaneers cover (4.57), Over 44.5 (48)
• Buffalo Bills-Tennessee Titans (3), total: 53; 16-42, Tennessee Titans win, Tennessee Titans cover (-26), Over 53 (58)
  • Crowd: 24.57-20.43; Buffalo Bills win, Buffalo Bills cover (4.14), Under 53 (45)
• Las Vegas Raiders-Kansas City Chiefs (-11.5), total: 54.5; 40-32, Las Vegas Raiders win, Las Vegas Raiders cover (8), Over 54.5 (72)
  • Crowd: 20.43-32; Kansas City Chiefs win, Kansas City Chiefs cover (-11.57), Under 54.5 (52.43)
• Miami Dolphins-San Francisco 49ers (-8), total: 50.5; 43-17, Miami Dolphins win, Miami Dolphins cover (26), Over 50.5 (60)
  • Crowd: 18.71-27.14; San Francisco 49ers win, San Francisco 49ers cover (-8.43), Under 50.5 (45.86)
• Indianapolis Colts-Cleveland Browns (-1), total: 49.5; 23-32, Cleveland Browns win, Cleveland Browns cover (-9), Over 49.5 (55)
  • Crowd: 23.57-22.14; Indianapolis Colts win, Indianapolis Colts cover (1.43), Under 49.5 (45.71)

Trifectas – 4 trifectas to balance the bagels

• Arizona Cardinals-New York Jets (7), total: 47.5; 30-10, Arizona Cardinals win, Arizona Cardinals cover (20), Under 47.5 (40)
  • Crowd: 28.71-17; Arizona Cardinals win, Arizona Cardinals cover (11.71), Under 47.5 (45.71)
• Carolina Panthers-Atlanta Falcons (-2.5), total: 54; 23-16, Carolina Panthers win, Carolina Panthers cover (7), Under 54 (39)
  • Crowd: 26.43-23.57; Carolina Panthers win, Carolina Panthers cover (2.86), Under 54 (50)
• Los Angeles Rams-Washington Football Team (7), total: 46; 30-10, Los Angeles Rams win, Los Angeles Rams cover (20), Under 46 (40)
  • Crowd: 27.17-18.33; Los Angeles Rams win, Los Angeles Rams cover (8.83), Under 46 (45.5)
• Los Angeles Chargers-New Orleans Saints (-7), total: 50; 27-30, New Orleans Saints win, Los Angeles Chargers cover (-3), Over 50 (57)
  • Crowd: 23.86-29.14; New Orleans Saints win, Los Angeles Chargers cover (-5.29), Over 50 (53)

Weekly Crowd Summary

• Overall Crowd score for the week: 43 points
• 9-5 straight-up
  • Record: 45-18 (70%, -1%)
• 5-9 ATS
  • Record: 37-37-3 (50%, -3%)
• 7-7 against the total
  • Record: 39-33-5 (54%, -1%)
• 9 total predictors

Detailed Crowd Records

Here is a bit more detail about the crowd records:

• Straight-up:
  • Favorites: 8-4 (49-20)
  • Underdogs: 1-1 (5-3)
• Spread:
  • Favorites: 2-5 (16-17-3 overall)
  • Thread-the-needle: 2-3 (16-17 overall)
  • Underdog: 1-1 (5-3 overall)
• Over-under:
  • Over: 1-2 (22-13-3)
  • Under: 6-5 (17-20-2)

Contest Results

• MyBookie.ag Super Contest – 1.5-3.5 this week. Not the comeback we were hoping for.
  • Panthers +2.5 at Falcons – WIN
  • Rams -7.5 at Washington – WIN
  • Texans -5.5 vs Jaguars – WIN
  • Bengals +11.5 at the Ravens – LOSS
  • Browns +1.5 vs Colts – WIN
• This was the mirror image of Week 2. In week 2 the crowd only picked 3 incorrectly and I somehow picked two for our Super Contest entry. This week, the crowd only got 5 correct, but we picked 4 for the Super Contest to bounce back from a couple of bad weeks and brings our record to .500 (12.5-12.5)

Hot Take Counter

We started last week after passing the quarter-pole of the season assessing the “authentic records” in each conference – meaning we take a look at each of the top contenders and debate whether or not they are actually a good team based on their opponents records and any really quality victories they’ve accumulated.

After just 4 games the data doesn’t reveal a whole lot as the contenders are, for the most part the “haves” while their opponents have been the “have-nots” so far with so few games played. This has certainly been true of the season so far.

But Week 5 did yield some interesting results with a couple really quality victories – most notably by the Raiders beating the Chiefs in KC, the Browns topping the Cols and the TItans just tonight with a big win over the Bills following Tennessee’s COVID outbreak drama.

We’ll start in the NFC though with my Seahawks who scored a thrilling victory on Sunday night over the Vikings on a last second TD to cap off a 94-yard drive with under 2 mins to go! This is an example of what I would consider a quality win over a team in the Vikings that is actually probably better than their record reveals. Their loss to the Seahawks drops them to a miserable 1-4 on the season, while the Seahawks move to 5-0 for the first time in franchise history.

The Vikings (and Lions), unsurprisingly have played the hardest schedule in the NFC and the 3rd toughest in the entire NFL after 5 weeks according to opponent records. And I gotta say Chris, they looked like the better team in that game against the Seahawks for much of the time – just not when it mattered most. I say all this to further illustrate that the concept of “Authentic Records” is always fully up for debate – even when it appears to be black-and-white.

Authentic Records

• NFC
  • Seahawks
    • Wins – Falcons, Patriots, Cowboys, Dolphins, Vikings – Cumulative record of 5-15 (Opp Win %: 38%) (+34 net points)
  • Packers – BYE
    • Wins – Vikings, Lions, Saints, Falcons – (Opp Win %: 33%) (+51 net points)
  • Saints
    • Wins – Bucs, Lions, Chargers (Opp Win %: 57%) +3 net points
    • Losses – Packers
  • Bears
    • Wins – Lions, Giants, Falcons, Bucs – (Opp Win %: 32%) (+6 net points)
    • Losses – Colts
  • Rams
    • Wins – Cowboys, Eagles, Giants, Washington – (Opp Win %: 38%) (+46 net points)
    • Losses – Bills
  • 3-way tie at 3-2
• AFC
  • Bills
    • Wins – Jets, Giants, Rams, Raiders (Opp Win %: 65%) (-3 net points)
    • Losses – Titans
  • Chiefs
    • Wins – Texans, Chargers, Ravens, Patriots (Opp Win %: 53%) (+39 net points) Best opponent record
    • Losses – Raiders
  • Steelers
    • Wins – Giants, Broncos, Texans, Eagles (Opp Win %: 24%) (+31 net points)
  • Titans
    • Wins – Broncos, Jaguars, Vikings, Bills (Opp Win %: 46%) (+32 net points)
  • Browns
    • Wins – Bengals, Cowboys, Washington, Colts – 3-9 (Opp Win %: 53%) (-2 net points)
    • Losses – Ravens
  • Ravens
    • Wins – Browns, Washington, Texans, Bengals – 4-8 (Opp Win %: 53%) (+49 net points)
    • Losses – Chiefs
  • Colts
    • Wins – Vikings, Bears, Jets – 4-8 (Opp Win %: 40%) (+47 net points)
    • Losses – Jaguars, Browns

Expert Analysis Analysis

Courtesy of Robert Sturgul who tracks many of the experts. 23 total individual predictors this week. Our crowd’s best bets performed the best in Week 5 with  36% 

Predictions Summary	Wk5
Crowd Wisdom (Select)	36.27%
Cynthia Frelund (NFL)	20.62%
Lorenzo Rayes USA Today)	12.58%
Chris Mueller (Yardbarker)	10.67%
Crowd Wisdom	7.58%
John Breech – CBS	7.34%
Sports Interaction	6.13%
Stats Insider	5.21%
Tom Schad (USA Today)	4.38%
Greg Rosenthal (NFL.com)	1.97%
Todd Haislop (Sporting News)	0.00%
Fantasy Guru (Twitter)	-0.42%
Jarrett Bell (USA Today)	-2.76%
Pete Prisco (CBS)	-2.87%
Jori Epstein (USA Today)	-3.59%
Sports Naut	-4.73%
Nate Davis (USA Today)	-7.84%
Crowd Confidence	-9.80%
OddsShark	-9.90%
Mike Jones (USA Today)	-20.38%
Mike Middlehurst-Schwartz (USA Today)	-22.82%
Vinnie Iyer (SportingNews)	-26.03%
Colin Cowherd (Fox)	-40.40%
Total Experts: 23

Remaining Games

• Jacksonville Jaguars-Houston Texans (-5.5), total: 54.5; 14-30, Houston Texans win, Houston Texans cover (-16), Under 54.5 (44)
  • Crowd: 20.86-23.71; Houston Texans win, Jacksonville Jaguars cover (-2.86), Under 54.5 (44.57)
  • Correct: Texans win, Under 54.5
  • Incorrect: Jaguars cover (thread-the-needle prediction)
• Philadelphia Eagles-Pittsburgh Steelers (-7), total: 44; 29-38, Pittsburgh Steelers win, Pittsburgh Steelers cover (-9), Over 44 (67)
  • Crowd: 19.14-24.86; Pittsburgh Steelers win, Philadelphia Eagles cover (-5.71), PUSH (44)
  • Correct: Steelers win
  • Incorrect: Eagles cover (thread-the-needle prediction), PUSH on the total
• Cincinnati Bengals-Baltimore Ravens (-11.5), total: 50.5; 3-27, Baltimore Ravens win, Baltimore Ravens cover (-24), Under 50.5 (30)
  • Crowd: 20.14-29.71; Baltimore Ravens win, Cincinnati Bengals cover (-9.57), Under 50.5 (49.86)
  • Correct: Ravens win, Under 50.5
  • Incorrect: Bengals cover (another thread-the-needle prediction, but with a much larger eye hole)
• New York Giants-Dallas Cowboys (-7.5), total: 52; 34-37, Dallas Cowboys win, New York Giants cover (-3), Over 52 (71)
  • Crowd: 21.29-28.14; Dallas Cowboys win, New York Giants cover (-6.86), Under 52 (49.43)
  • Correct: Cowboys win, Giants cover (yay a correct thread-the-needle!)
  • Incorrect: Under 52
• Minnesota Vikings-Seattle Seahawks (-6.5), total: 54.5; 26-27, Seattle Seahawks win, Minnesota Vikings cover (-1), Under 54.5 (53)
  • Crowd: 22.86-31.57; Seattle Seahawks win, Seattle Seahawks cover (-8.71), Under 54.5 (54.43)
  • Correct: Seahawks win, Under 54.5 (by mere hundredths of a point)
  • Incorrect: Seahawks cover – should have known better after last season!

Winner winner chicken dinner!

Here’s who came out on top on our Leaderboards in Week 5.

• Prediction Score: Chris pulled away from the crowd with a solid 59 prediction points
  • Straight-up: 10-4
  • ATS: 8-6
  • O/U: 10-4
  • 3 Bullseyes
• Perfect Predictions (10-pointers):
  • Still no perfect predictions!
• Stake Stacks of the Week: 
  • Biggest Stack – Bryan Cole
    • Netted 15 stakes off 81 wagered which was good for an 18.5% ROI
  • Best ROI
    • Paul comes out on top in the Return-on-Investment department netting 12 stakes off only 30 wagered – good for a brisk 40% return – not too shabby!

Overall Leaderboards

• Prediction score
  • Bryan Cole on top with 297 total points
  • Chris close behind with 293
  • Paul a distant 3rd place with 261
• Stakes
  • Gemma Aronchick leading the ROI with an impressive 24.4% from 119 stakes wagered
  • Bryan Cole with the biggest overall stake stack by a mile with 51, but took him 328 stakes wagered to get there (for a still solid 15.5% ROI)

Wrap-up

Head over to stakehousesports.com to download the app and start predicting (or predict using our web app. Remember, you can win up to $50 a week in Amazon gift cards as well as a prestigious shout-out on this here program. Odds update daily, so make sure to check your predictions before gametime.

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