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Podcast Recap

2020 Season – NFL Week 5 Recap

The crowd continued to slide back in Week 5, but they had a great result in our Super Contest entry. Listen to the podcast for all the details!

Week 5 Crowd Results

Just a reminder, predict the scores and you can win up to $50 per week! Predict now!

We both are riding high after some big wins by our teams – plus the Lakers winning the bubble championship – and with both our teams hitting the bye, we wanted to take a moment to see where the league stands with between the have and have-nots.

2020 – Regular Season Recap – Episode 8 The Stakehouse Sports Podcast

Chris and Paul emerge from quarantine to review their regular season predictions and lay out what they think will happen during the Super Wild Card Weekend games.
  1. 2020 – Regular Season Recap – Episode 8
  2. 2020 – Week 6 Recap – Episode 7
  3. 2020 – Week 5 Recap – Episode 6
  4. 2020 – Week 4 Recap – Episode 5
  5. 2020 – Week 3 Recap – Episode 4
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Show Notes

Barrel Wagers & Whiskey

  • A barrel wager is a prediction in which we’re so confident we’d wager everything we own… but that if we get it wrong we’d be left wearing nothing but a barrel.
  • The Whiskey of the Week:
  • Crater Lake Straight American Rye Whiskey from Crater Lake Spirits
  • Distilled in Bend, OR
  • Distillers notes: Crater Lake Rye Whiskey hopes to revive the tradition of these small family brands that were lost during Prohibition. Crafted from 100% rye grain and pure Cascade Mountain water, the character of our rye is rich with deep toffee notes and a peppery spice that defines true American rye whiskey.
  • Paul – Falcons to cover the -1 spread vs the Panthers
    • I figured the Falcons would come out on fire with their backs against the wall, knowing a loss would drop them to 0-5 and likely cost their head coach his job
    • And they were playing at home against a division foe in the Panthers – even with some fans in the stands for the first time during this COVID season – even more motivation!
    • Couldn’t lose this one, right? RIGHT?
    • WRONG – Panthers dominated the game and won going away 23-16
    • Dan Quinn (and the GM) did get fired – guess they didn’t care that much whomp whomp
  • Chris – Steelers to cover the -7.5 against the Eagles
    • If you had told me that the Eagles would score 29 points, I definitely would have picked a different game.
    • My wager was saved by a career game from Chase Claypool who had 4 TDs including one with just 3 minutes to go to put the game away.
  • Chris is now ahead with a 2-3 record and Paul is a half-barrel behind at 1-3-1.

Crowd Results

Highlights and lowlights:

It was another feast of famine week for the crowd in week 5.

Bagels – Carb city – 5 bagels

  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers-Chicago Bears (3.5), total: 44.5; 19-20, Chicago Bears win, Chicago Bears cover (-1), Under 44.5 (39)
    • Crowd: 26.29-21.71; Tampa Bay Buccaneers win, Tampa Bay Buccaneers cover (4.57), Over 44.5 (48)
  • Buffalo Bills-Tennessee Titans (3), total: 53; 16-42, Tennessee Titans win, Tennessee Titans cover (-26), Over 53 (58)
    • Crowd: 24.57-20.43; Buffalo Bills win, Buffalo Bills cover (4.14), Under 53 (45)
  • Las Vegas Raiders-Kansas City Chiefs (-11.5), total: 54.5; 40-32, Las Vegas Raiders win, Las Vegas Raiders cover (8), Over 54.5 (72)
    • Crowd: 20.43-32; Kansas City Chiefs win, Kansas City Chiefs cover (-11.57), Under 54.5 (52.43)
  • Miami Dolphins-San Francisco 49ers (-8), total: 50.5; 43-17, Miami Dolphins win, Miami Dolphins cover (26), Over 50.5 (60)
    • Crowd: 18.71-27.14; San Francisco 49ers win, San Francisco 49ers cover (-8.43), Under 50.5 (45.86)
  • Indianapolis Colts-Cleveland Browns (-1), total: 49.5; 23-32, Cleveland Browns win, Cleveland Browns cover (-9), Over 49.5 (55)
    • Crowd: 23.57-22.14; Indianapolis Colts win, Indianapolis Colts cover (1.43), Under 49.5 (45.71)

Trifectas – 4 trifectas to balance the bagels

  • Arizona Cardinals-New York Jets (7), total: 47.5; 30-10, Arizona Cardinals win, Arizona Cardinals cover (20), Under 47.5 (40)
    • Crowd: 28.71-17; Arizona Cardinals win, Arizona Cardinals cover (11.71), Under 47.5 (45.71)
  • Carolina Panthers-Atlanta Falcons (-2.5), total: 54; 23-16, Carolina Panthers win, Carolina Panthers cover (7), Under 54 (39)
    • Crowd: 26.43-23.57; Carolina Panthers win, Carolina Panthers cover (2.86), Under 54 (50)
  • Los Angeles Rams-Washington Football Team (7), total: 46; 30-10, Los Angeles Rams win, Los Angeles Rams cover (20), Under 46 (40)
    • Crowd: 27.17-18.33; Los Angeles Rams win, Los Angeles Rams cover (8.83), Under 46 (45.5)
  • Los Angeles Chargers-New Orleans Saints (-7), total: 50; 27-30, New Orleans Saints win, Los Angeles Chargers cover (-3), Over 50 (57)
    • Crowd: 23.86-29.14; New Orleans Saints win, Los Angeles Chargers cover (-5.29), Over 50 (53)

Weekly Crowd Summary

  • Overall Crowd score for the week: 43 points
  • 9-5 straight-up
    • Record: 45-18 (70%, -1%)
  • 5-9 ATS
    • Record: 37-37-3 (50%, -3%)
  • 7-7 against the total
    • Record: 39-33-5 (54%, -1%)
  • 9 total predictors

Detailed Crowd Records

Here is a bit more detail about the crowd records:

  • Straight-up:
    • Favorites: 8-4 (49-20)
    • Underdogs: 1-1 (5-3)
  • Spread:
    • Favorites: 2-5 (16-17-3 overall)
    • Thread-the-needle: 2-3 (16-17 overall)
    • Underdog: 1-1 (5-3 overall)
  • Over-under:
    • Over: 1-2 (22-13-3)
    • Under: 6-5 (17-20-2)

Contest Results

  • MyBookie.ag Super Contest – 1.5-3.5 this week. Not the comeback we were hoping for.
    • Panthers +2.5 at Falcons – WIN
    • Rams -7.5 at Washington – WIN
    • Texans -5.5 vs Jaguars – WIN
    • Bengals +11.5 at the Ravens – LOSS
    • Browns +1.5 vs Colts – WIN
  • This was the mirror image of Week 2. In week 2 the crowd only picked 3 incorrectly and I somehow picked two for our Super Contest entry. This week, the crowd only got 5 correct, but we picked 4 for the Super Contest to bounce back from a couple of bad weeks and brings our record to .500 (12.5-12.5)

Hot Take Counter

We started last week after passing the quarter-pole of the season assessing the “authentic records” in each conference – meaning we take a look at each of the top contenders and debate whether or not they are actually a good team based on their opponents records and any really quality victories they’ve accumulated.

After just 4 games the data doesn’t reveal a whole lot as the contenders are, for the most part the “haves” while their opponents have been the “have-nots” so far with so few games played. This has certainly been true of the season so far.

But Week 5 did yield some interesting results with a couple really quality victories – most notably by the Raiders beating the Chiefs in KC, the Browns topping the Cols and the TItans just tonight with a big win over the Bills following Tennessee’s COVID outbreak drama.

We’ll start in the NFC though with my Seahawks who scored a thrilling victory on Sunday night over the Vikings on a last second TD to cap off a 94-yard drive with under 2 mins to go! This is an example of what I would consider a quality win over a team in the Vikings that is actually probably better than their record reveals. Their loss to the Seahawks drops them to a miserable 1-4 on the season, while the Seahawks move to 5-0 for the first time in franchise history.

The Vikings (and Lions), unsurprisingly have played the hardest schedule in the NFC and the 3rd toughest in the entire NFL after 5 weeks according to opponent records. And I gotta say Chris, they looked like the better team in that game against the Seahawks for much of the time – just not when it mattered most. I say all this to further illustrate that the concept of “Authentic Records” is always fully up for debate – even when it appears to be black-and-white.

Authentic Records

  • NFC
    • Seahawks
      • Wins – Falcons, Patriots, Cowboys, Dolphins, Vikings – Cumulative record of 5-15 (Opp Win %: 38%) (+34 net points)
    • Packers – BYE
      • Wins – Vikings, Lions, Saints, Falcons – (Opp Win %: 33%) (+51 net points)
    • Saints
      • Wins – Bucs, Lions, Chargers (Opp Win %: 57%) +3 net points
      • Losses – Packers
    • Bears
      • Wins – Lions, Giants, Falcons, Bucs – (Opp Win %: 32%) (+6 net points)
      • Losses – Colts
    • Rams
      • Wins – Cowboys, Eagles, Giants, Washington – (Opp Win %: 38%) (+46 net points)
      • Losses – Bills
    • 3-way tie at 3-2
  • AFC
    • Bills
      • Wins – Jets, Giants, Rams, Raiders (Opp Win %: 65%) (-3 net points)
      • Losses – Titans
    • Chiefs
      • Wins – Texans, Chargers, Ravens, Patriots (Opp Win %: 53%) (+39 net points) Best opponent record
      • Losses – Raiders
    • Steelers
      • Wins – Giants, Broncos, Texans, Eagles (Opp Win %: 24%) (+31 net points)
    • Titans
      • Wins – Broncos, Jaguars, Vikings, Bills (Opp Win %: 46%) (+32 net points)
    • Browns
      • Wins – Bengals, Cowboys, Washington, Colts – 3-9 (Opp Win %: 53%) (-2 net points)
      • Losses – Ravens
    • Ravens
      • Wins – Browns, Washington, Texans, Bengals – 4-8 (Opp Win %: 53%) (+49 net points)
      • Losses – Chiefs
    • Colts
      • Wins – Vikings, Bears, Jets – 4-8 (Opp Win %: 40%) (+47 net points)
      • Losses – Jaguars, Browns

Expert Analysis Analysis

Courtesy of Robert Sturgul who tracks many of the experts. 23 total individual predictors this week. Our crowd’s best bets performed the best in Week 5 with  36% 

Predictions SummaryWk5
Crowd Wisdom (Select)36.27%
Cynthia Frelund (NFL)20.62%
Lorenzo Rayes USA Today)12.58%
Chris Mueller (Yardbarker)10.67%
Crowd Wisdom7.58%
John Breech – CBS7.34%
Sports Interaction6.13%
Stats Insider5.21%
Tom Schad (USA Today)4.38%
Greg Rosenthal (NFL.com)1.97%
Todd Haislop (Sporting News)0.00%
Fantasy Guru (Twitter)-0.42%
Jarrett Bell (USA Today)-2.76%
Pete Prisco (CBS)-2.87%
Jori Epstein (USA Today)-3.59%
Sports Naut-4.73%
Nate Davis (USA Today)-7.84%
Crowd Confidence-9.80%
OddsShark-9.90%
Mike Jones (USA Today)-20.38%
Mike Middlehurst-Schwartz (USA Today)-22.82%
Vinnie Iyer (SportingNews)-26.03%
Colin Cowherd (Fox)-40.40%
Total Experts: 23

Remaining Games

  • Jacksonville Jaguars-Houston Texans (-5.5), total: 54.5; 14-30, Houston Texans win, Houston Texans cover (-16), Under 54.5 (44)
    • Crowd: 20.86-23.71; Houston Texans win, Jacksonville Jaguars cover (-2.86), Under 54.5 (44.57)
    • Correct: Texans win, Under 54.5
    • Incorrect: Jaguars cover (thread-the-needle prediction)
  • Philadelphia Eagles-Pittsburgh Steelers (-7), total: 44; 29-38, Pittsburgh Steelers win, Pittsburgh Steelers cover (-9), Over 44 (67)
    • Crowd: 19.14-24.86; Pittsburgh Steelers win, Philadelphia Eagles cover (-5.71), PUSH (44)
    • Correct: Steelers win
    • Incorrect: Eagles cover (thread-the-needle prediction), PUSH on the total
  • Cincinnati Bengals-Baltimore Ravens (-11.5), total: 50.5; 3-27, Baltimore Ravens win, Baltimore Ravens cover (-24), Under 50.5 (30)
    • Crowd: 20.14-29.71; Baltimore Ravens win, Cincinnati Bengals cover (-9.57), Under 50.5 (49.86)
    • Correct: Ravens win, Under 50.5
    • Incorrect: Bengals cover (another thread-the-needle prediction, but with a much larger eye hole)
  • New York Giants-Dallas Cowboys (-7.5), total: 52; 34-37, Dallas Cowboys win, New York Giants cover (-3), Over 52 (71)
    • Crowd: 21.29-28.14; Dallas Cowboys win, New York Giants cover (-6.86), Under 52 (49.43)
    • Correct: Cowboys win, Giants cover (yay a correct thread-the-needle!)
    • Incorrect: Under 52
  • Minnesota Vikings-Seattle Seahawks (-6.5), total: 54.5; 26-27, Seattle Seahawks win, Minnesota Vikings cover (-1), Under 54.5 (53)
    • Crowd: 22.86-31.57; Seattle Seahawks win, Seattle Seahawks cover (-8.71), Under 54.5 (54.43)
    • Correct: Seahawks win, Under 54.5 (by mere hundredths of a point)
    • Incorrect: Seahawks cover – should have known better after last season!

Winner winner chicken dinner!

Here’s who came out on top on our Leaderboards in Week 5.

  • Prediction Score: Chris pulled away from the crowd with a solid 59 prediction points
    • Straight-up: 10-4
    • ATS: 8-6
    • O/U: 10-4
    • 3 Bullseyes
  • Perfect Predictions (10-pointers):
    • Still no perfect predictions!
  • Stake Stacks of the Week: 
    • Biggest Stack – Bryan Cole
      • Netted 15 stakes off 81 wagered which was good for an 18.5% ROI
    • Best ROI
      • Paul comes out on top in the Return-on-Investment department netting 12 stakes off only 30 wagered – good for a brisk 40% return – not too shabby!

Overall Leaderboards

  • Prediction score
    • Bryan Cole on top with 297 total points
    • Chris close behind with 293
    • Paul a distant 3rd place with 261
  • Stakes
    • Gemma Aronchick leading the ROI with an impressive 24.4% from 119 stakes wagered
    • Bryan Cole with the biggest overall stake stack by a mile with 51, but took him 328 stakes wagered to get there (for a still solid 15.5% ROI)

Wrap-up

Head over to stakehousesports.com to download the app and start predicting (or predict using our web app. Remember, you can win up to $50 a week in Amazon gift cards as well as a prestigious shout-out on this here program. Odds update daily, so make sure to check your predictions before gametime.

You can also follow us on Twitter using handle @houseofstakes, and on Facebook at facebook.com/stakehousesports. And you can always contact us at podcast@stakehousesports.com.

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