Wild Card Weekend CPR: Even Split

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Wild Card Weekend was quite a rollercoaster for the crowd. It started off with an amazing comeback that resulted in wins against the spread and the total, then a complete whiff, followed by a WotC (pronounced Wahtzee!), followed by two fourth-quarter scores that resulted in losses against the spread and the total. I feel like the crowd deserves credit for getting a perfect mirror image of each day, but it’s hard to cash in on that.

Wild Card Weekend Net Results:

  • Weekly Pot: $51.19
  • Overall Pot: $51.19

Best Bet Results

There was really only one prediction for the whole weekend that we’d consider a best bet, and that was the under in the Bills-Jaguars game.

  • Vegas Total: 40
  • Crowd Predicted Total: 32.27 (almost 20% less)
  • Actual Total: 13

The 3 other games did not see much of a discrepancy between the Vegas total and the crowd’s prediction. The biggest discrepancy with the spread was in the Falcons-Rams game in which the crowd predicted a 7.3-point Rams win against a 5.5-point spread, but as we’ve discussed, we have yet to figure out a formula for determining the strength of the crowd prediction when it comes to the spread.

Titans-Chiefs Results (2 for 3)

Correct: Titans +8.5 (-110), Under 44.5 (-110); Incorrect: Chiefs ML (-420); Net: $38.18

wcw2018-tenkc

The crowd had an interesting separation for this game. 6 users predicted a sizeable victory for the Chiefs, easily covering the 8.5-point spread (4 users predicted an 11-point win). 5 users predicted the Chiefs to win but fail to cover, and 3 users picked the Titans to win outright, with Bryan coming within a two-point conversion of an on-the-money prediction.

The users who predicted a Tennessee upset swung the crowd prediction to a win. As we’ve discussed a few times, the user who predicts a big underdog to win outright can outweigh multiple users who predict the favorite to cover by just a point or two. In this case, the 4 users who predicted an 11-point win for the Chiefs were neutralized by the user who predicted the Titans to win by 3 (4 users * 2.5 (11 points – 8.5) = 10  < 1 user * 11.5 (3 points + 8.5). The same goes for the other two extremes of the bell curve. Once the two extremes were balanced out, the crowd’s aggregate prediction was composed of the remaining predictions that foresaw a sizeable Chiefs win that didn’t cover the spread.

Falcons-Rams (0 for 3; Wabby)

Incorrect: Rams -5.5 (-115), Over 48 (-110); Rams ML (-250); Net: $0

atl-lar-chart

The crowd had a much different split in the Falcons-Rams game compared to the Titans-Chiefs. Additionally, Jason, the lone Atlanta win predictor, was well outweighed by the predictor (who we’ll keep anonymous) who expected a huge Rams triumph. Once his pick was balanced out, the crowd prediction around the spread aggregated in a reasonably comfortable Rams win.

With respect to the total, the crowd prediction was JUST over the Vegas total, so when it comes to wagering, the smart move would be to hang on to your money until the crowd sees a bigger discrepancy, such as in the Bills-Jaguars game.

Bills-Jaguars (3-for-3; WotC!)

Correct: Bills +8.5 (-110); under 40 (-110); Jaguars ML (-420); Net: $50.56

wcw2018-bufjac.jpg

The distribution of spreads in the Bills-Jaguars game was similar to Titans-Chiefs. A single predictor who saw the Bills winning balanced out the 4 folks who saw a big Jacksonville victory. Thus, the crowd aggregate landed right at 7 which ended up being the exact final spread.

Much more interesting in this game was the crowd’s prediction of the total. The crowd predicted a total of 32.27, almost 20% below the Vegas line of 40. Only one predictor saw a high-scoring game; every other predictor was at or below 40. The resulting crowd prediction was by far the strongest value play of the weekend, and it came through with room to spare with an actual total of 13.

Panthers-Saints (1 for 3)

Correct: Saints ML (-275); Incorrect: Saints -7 (-115), Under 48.5 (-110); Net: $13.64

wcw2018-carno

The crowd had a few predictors that expected sizeable double-digit wins for the Saints. Unlike the other games, though, there was only one predictor who saw the Panthers winning, and that was insufficient to sway the crowd to a thread-the-needle result.  Nevertheless, the crowd saw a pretty close game (though lower scoring than what ultimately happened), and that is precisely what happened.

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