The summary of how it works:
The longer answer:
We saw a lot of great success this season with crowd predictions, and when we couple that with the performance of Cynthia Frelund’s Twitter followers, we think we have a really interesting product on our hands.
But now it’s time to put our money where our collective mouth is.
We are going to award prize money to the users who predict the best each week and over the course of the postseason. The catch is that the amount of prize money is based on how well the crowd performs in predicting the value in the lines.
This is where you come in.
While our crowd performed relatively well over the course of the season, it was very small (less than 15), and our crowd’s performance paled in comparison to the much larger crowd that Cynthia Frelund generated.
- Our crowd’s performance:
- Straight-up: 66%
- Against the Spread: 49%
- Over/Under: 53%
- Cynthia Frelund’s crowd’s performance:
- Straight-up: 74%
- Against the Spread: 50%
- Over/Under: 68%
I collected predictions from between 50 and 100 of Ms. Frelund’s Twitter followers to analyze their performance.
We need you to help grow the crowd by inviting your friends. Remember, the bigger the crowd the better it performs, so the more friends you get to participate, the better the chance is that the weekly and end-of-season prize money will be bigger.
We recognize that inviting your friends to participate almost always requires the ability to trash talk about how much better you are than them. Since we’re still working on the basics of our site, we’ll be glad to generate a leaderboard for you every week so you can back up your boasting. Just send the list of users you want us to track to firstname.lastname@example.org.
Here’s How It Works
We have set aside a purse for each week of the postseason. It starts at $120. There are $10 set aside for each available bet (straight-up, spread, and over/under) during the first two weeks of the postseason, then $20 for Championship weekend, then $40 for the Super Bowl.
Based on the crowd predictions, we will adjust the purse based on their performance for each straight-up, spread, and over/under odds set by the consensus odds. Let’s walk through an example:
- In Wild Card Weekend, the Rams are favored by 5.5 points against the Falcons at -110 (that is, pay $110 to win $100 for a total of $210).
- The crowd predicts the Rams to win by a predicted spread of 6.6.
- If the Rams cover the spread, the purse grows by $9.9. If the crowd loses, then the crowd loses.
- After all of the results are tallied, let’s imagine that our new purse is $150.
- We take half of the purse ($75) and pay the predictor who had the best success for the week (see scoring details below). We take the other half and set it aside for the end-of-postseason winner.
How/What Can I Win?
Each prediction can earn a maximum of 10 points:
- Predict the winner correctly: 2 points
- Predict the spread winner correctly: 2 points
- Predict the Over/Under total correctly: 2 points
- Predict the final spread exactly right: 1 point
- Predict the final total exactly right: 1 point
- Predict the exact score for the home team: 1 point
- Predict the exact score for the away team: 1 point
For those not adding along, an On-the-Money Prediction (exact predictions for both the away team and home team scores) earns 10 points; the next highest possible score is 7.
At the end of each weekend, we tally all of the points and the user(s) with the highest point total earns the weekly purse. The user(s) with the highest point total for all predictions at the end of postseason (after the final game), earns the end-of-postseason purse.
- The user who predicted more winners correctly
- The lower average delta from the user’s predicted spread to the actual spread across all games
- The lower average delta from the user’s predicted totals to the actual totals across all games