Week 15, Game 1 – The Early Indicator

In Weeks 13 and 14, the crowd missed across all 3 categories, and I was reluctant to write up my recap because I kept hoping that somehow the results would change and the crowd would get at least one right somehow. Sadly, it never did.

In Week 15, though, the crowd got 2 of 3 correct, and yet I was stuck getting a write-up published. As it turns out, this ended up being somewhat of a benefit as I can look back at the week’s games in their entirety and try to draw a through-line.

In the Thursday game between the Broncos and the Colts, the crowd provided an early indication of what was to come. The crowd predicted a strong play on the under, accurately predicted Denver to win, and missed the spread. The game-winner was never really in doubt and neither was the spread winner while QB Brock Osweiler somehow turned in one of his best performances in the last two years, on the road no less. The over/under ended up being a little close for comfort, but the best bet came through.

With the remaining Week 15 games in the rearview mirror as well, the Thursday night game ended up being the early indicator for what was to come.

The Game 1 CPR – 2 for 3.

Correct: Straight-up; Over/Under; Incorrect: Against the Spread

The one key takeaway that I have learned over the last two weeks is that using the term “strong play” has better karma than best bet, so I’m going to stick with that going forward.

We only had 4 predictors on Thursday, and as I’ve mentioned before, it’s hard to know what the crowd wisdom truly said with such a small number, though I’ll gladly give credit to the crowd for being right. 🙂

2017-week15-tnf-cf

The Cynthia Frelund Experience

Technically spreaking, Cynthia Frelund’s crowd (@cfrelund) also got 2 of 3 right, predicting a final of Broncos 18.6-Colts 16.2, but of course, there are two important points.

  1. We round up or down, so the final predicted would be 19-16 which indicates that Denver would cover the spread.
  2. The crowd indicating that the spread had little value is important information by itself and anyone tailing the crowd would have known to stay away from the spread bet this week.

So in the end, with both those facts in mind, I’m giving Miss Frelund’s crowd the trifecta, which henceforth I’m calling the Wahtzee. (WotC, get it? Thank you, please be sure to tip your wait staff.)

-Chris

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