Week 11 CPR: End of the Middle

 

Week 11 was the last week in which any teams have byes. From here on out, the crowd will have to reach 8 correct in order to hit 50%. As I noted last week, the crowd seems to have steadied across the 3 pillars. This week the crowd continued to do well straight up, predicting 10 correct and tying for second among the ESPN experts, but it fell below the 50% mark for both the spread and the total. Given that we are hoping to maintain a high-50s average correct, anything below 50% puts pressure on the remainder of the season.

There were three games of note with respect to the final results this week. First, the Buccaneers-Dolphins game was seconds away from a trifecta for the crowd. Tampa Bay scored a touchdown with no time remaining (similar to the Kansas City touchdown as time expired in Week 4) to flip the under to over. What was noteworthy as far as prognostication goes is that the crowd had the spread nearly right on the money, and it was only a fluke play that switched the result.

Another loss the crowd suffered was with respect to the spread in the Falcons-Seahawks game. The Seahawks were favored for most of the week, and our crowd predicted an Atlanta win outright. The late line move to Seahawks +1 meant that the crowd’s predicted spread of Falcons by 0.9 ended up being wrong by just a hair. Had the line moved down to even or as high as Seattle +0.5, the crowd would have broken even for the week.

On the win side, the crowd predicted a comfortable 7.7-point win for New Orleans over Washington. The spread favored the Saints by 7.5, so the crowd did not see a lot of value there. And while New Orleans ended up winning the game by a field goal, the crowd only got the spread prediction correct thanks to a big line move from Saints by 7.5 to Saints by 9.5. What’s noteworthy is that the betting crowd saw a lot of value in New Orleans which is why the sportsbooks moved the line further towards Washington to entice bettors to bet on Washington. Our crowd did not see any value, so if we had kept an eye on the line movement, it would have indicated a buy on Washington as the game neared kickoff.

In the latter two examples, as our crowd grows, we’ll aim to identify when the crowd is correct apart from just what the spread or total ends up being at kickoff.

We had 7 total predictors this week (down 4 from Week 10) and could still use help to build our crowd size. We are working through plans for a postseason contest, so please tell your friends to add their wisdom in the coming weeks so that they can have a chance to win!

Another Near-Hit This Week!

User R.M. was just one point away from an on-the-money prediction this week, predicting a final outcome of Saints 34, Washington 32 (actual 34-31). Surely he predicted a furious Saints comeback as well. Nice work!

User Mark had another noteworthy prediction this week. First, he predicted that the Ravens would defeat the Packers by 21 points (28-7) and the actual result was 23-0. As a general tendency, no user has ever predicted a shutout, and 7 points is about as low as you can predict, so Mark definitely saw something that proved out when the game was played.

CPR Week 11 Summary

  • Straight-up: 10-4 (71%)
  • Against the Spread: 6-7-1 (43%)
  • Over/Under: 6-8 (43%)

Overall

  • Straight-up: 103-57 (64%, +0%)
  • Against the Spread: 75-85 (47%, +0%)
  • Over/Under: 78-82 (49%,+0%)

7 predictors in Week 11, down 4 from Week 10. Thank you to those who keep returning. We cannot tell you how much we appreciate your support. Please tell yourfriends!

The Cynthia Frelund Experience

2017-week11-mnf-cf

@cfrelund’s crowd, while missing on the spread (which was basically a coin-flip at game time), got both the winner and the over/under correct. Additionally, it deserves mentioning that the crowd predicted a very close game and yea, verily, it came to pass. Additionally, the spread opened with the Seahawks favored by 3.5 points in which both our crowd and Ms. Frelund’s crowd saw a lot of value. That matched the betting trends as the sportsbooks moved the line over 4 points by kickoff.

The WotC Game of the Week

There were two trifectas this week: Washington-Saints and Patriots-Raiders. As I mentioned above, the crowd hit on the trifecta in New Orleans only because of a late line move, but they were pretty much right on the money in Mexico City. The crowd expected the Patriots to coast to victory while the Raiders would not be able to keep pace. It seems fitting that the game that put the Raiders’ postseason hopes on life support (6-0 down the stretch is the only way I can see them playing in January) is also the one that the crowd predicted most accurately.

PREDICTION CROWD ACTUAL
Winner Patriots Patriots
Spread Patriots by 10.9 (spread was Patriots by 6.5) Patriots by 25
Over/Under 50.8 (under 52) 41

The Wabby of the Week

The Giants pick up their second Wabby this season. Having just given up a win to a winless team in the previous week, I would have thought you were crazy to give me the Chiefs AND points going into Sunday, and on Monday I’d be wearing a barrel.

PREDICTION CROWD ACTUAL
Winner Chiefs Giants
Spread Chiefs by 11.7 Giants by 3
Over/Under 48.57 (over 44.5) 21

Week 11 Top Performers

Here are our top performers for Week 11. Congrats everyone and thanks again for your help!

STRAIGHT-UP AGAINST THE SPREAD OVER/UNDER
R.M. (11)
P.C. (11)
M.G. (9)
G.A. (7)
P.C. (7)
M.G. (7)
R.M. (7)
M.R. (7)
C.A. (8)
G.A. (7)
M.R. (6)

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