In Weeks 1 and 2, our crowd was pretty small, with only 4 predictors predicting most of the games. Week 5 was the first week in which we had at least 10 predictors, and we have had a pretty consistently sized audience after that point. So it’s interesting to look at the results from Week 5 onward. Three weeks of better than 50% (57%, 53%, and 62%) and one week at 50% is a nice consistent performance against the spread. There were two bad weeks mixed in there, so it’s worth mentioning that we may see a poor performance in the future to offset the solid weeks (though we don’t expect that, of course :)). For what it’s worth, one of those down weeks, Week 8, had only 6 predictors. So for all weeks with at least 10 predictors, the crowd has a 52% success rate against the spread. While this is only slightly better than a coin flip, it’s also just slightly worse than the best predictors out there.
One other note is that the crowd has predicted the winners in the last 4 weeks at better than 62%, and the crowd has never been worse than 50%. For the season, the crowd has picked the winners 64% of the time. That is pretty remarkable given that a lot of experts are not at that level (only 2 of 11 experts on ESPN.com have more than our crowd).
So once again, great job crowd!
We had 11 total predictors this week (same as last week), though we only had 7 with 13 or more predictions. Please tell your friends to add their wisdom!
Another Near-Hit This Week!
User Mark hit the trifecta this week when he predicted a 21-17 Jaguars victory over the Chargers (actual: 20-17). He also deserves some sort of credit for being the lone prognosticator to pick the Packers to beat the Bears. Nice work Mark!
CPR Week 10 Summary
- Straight-up: 11-3 (79%)
- Against the Spread: 7-6-1 (50%)
- Over/Under: 5-9 (36%)
- Straight-up: 93-53 (64%, +2%)
- Against the Spread: 69-77 (47%, +0%)
- Over/Under: 72-74 (49%, -2%)
11 predictors in Week 10, same as Week 9. Thank you to those who keep returning. We cannot tell you how much we appreciate your support. Please tell your friends!
The Cynthia Frelund Experience
Another trifecta for @crelund‘s crowd in the Week 10 Monday night game, though it took a late move of the line down to Panthers -8 to come through since the crowd predicted a Carolina victory of 8.8 points. Our crowd predicted a much closer game, as well as lower scoring, so while we had the correct side, we only went 1 for 3. This just goes to show that the bigger the crowd, the likelier our predictions will be more reliable.
The WotC Game of the Week
There were 3 trifectas this week: Vikings-Washington, Patriots-Broncos, and Chargers-Jaguars. For anyone who has followed the blog, you may recall that I love it when the crowd threads the needs of picking the favorite to win but also picking the underdog to cover, and that’s exactly what happened with in Jacksonville in Week 10. Additionally, the crowd predicted a 3-point spread and yea, verily it came to pass.
|Spread||Jaguars by 3.5 (spread was Jaguars by 5)||Jaguars by 3|
|Over/Under||40 (under 40.5)||37|
The Wabby of the Week
There were two games on which the crowd whiffed on: Packers-Bears and Giants-49ers. Personally, I don’t think that it’s all that surprising that a rookie lost, but if I had told you that New York and San Francisco would score 52 points and gave you the Niners and 9 points, I’d say you’d be hurting on Monday morning.
|Spread||Giants by 3 (spread was Giants by 1)||49ers by 10|
|Over/Under||35.75 (under 41.5)||52|
Week 10 Top Performers
Here are our top performers for Week 10. Congrats everyone and thanks again for your help!
|STRAIGHT-UP||AGAINST THE SPREAD||OVER/UNDER|
4 tied at 6
One reply on “Week 10 CPR: Equilibrium?”
[…] have byes. From here on out, the crowd will have to reach 8 correct in order to hit 50%. As I noted last week, the crowd seems to have steadied across the 3 pillars. This week the crowd continued to do well […]