We’re still trying to solidify our methodology around identifying best bets. A couple of games stood out this week in that regard:
- LAR -4 at NYG – Crowd predicted LAR -7.8
- DET -2.5 at GB – Crowd predicted DET -5.27
In both of those cases the crowd wisdom said that the spread was half of what it should be. And in both cases, they came through in fine style. So we’ll keep an eye on when the crowd diverges from the Vegas lines going forward and see if we can identify a trend. I did a quick scan back through the season and the crowd is about .500 when the predicted spread is around double or half of the Vegas line. Though it was trended upward the last several weeks.
On the total side, the biggest delta was on the Cardinals-49ers game with a predicted total of 31.7 compared to the Vegas line of 39, and that came through as well.
Week 9 Best Bets: 3-0
We’re certainly excited about a solid week, but of course we’re tempering it knowing that 100% accuracy is probably not sustainable. 🙂
Other Best Bets
RP-Excel – 2-4
In Week 9, RP Excel was correct on the Eagles -7.5 and the Cardinals -2 but missed his other 4 picks for another 2-4 week.
Vegas Insider – 3-2
The Westgate Super Contest consensus is back on track, picking the Colts -13, the Rams -3.5, and the Cowboys +1. The consensus missed on the Broncos +8.5 and the Falcons +2.
Are there any other sites you follow for best bets? Add them in the comments or send them to us at firstname.lastname@example.org. Thanks!