Week 9 CPR: The Whole vs. the Parts

It may seem strange to consider an 8, 8, and 7 week to be a success, but that’s a decent performance out of 13 games.

The interesting data that jumped out at me this week is how the crowd was greater than the sum of its parts. The highest against-the-spread percentage for an individual predictor this week was 62% (8 of 13) with the next highest percentage being 50% (6 of 12). (I should point out that new user J.J. hit the trifecta on the Monday night game for a 100% success rate.) So the crowd at 8 correct matched the high of any individual. A brief look at previous weeks shows a similar pattern. There were one or two individuals who performed better than the crowd, but overall, the crowd was in the upper end of the correct answers.

We had 11 predictors this week (3 up from last week), but we could still use your help to grow our crowd. Please tell your friends to add their wisdom!

Two Near-Hits This Week!

Two predictors were oh-so-close to on-the-money predictions. P.C. predicted a 23-19 Titans victory over the Ravens (actual: 23-20), and new predictor J.J. predicted a 31-17 victory for the Lions over the Packers (actual: 30-17). Nice work you two!

CPR Week 9 Summary

  • Straight-up: 8-5 (62%)
  • Against the Spread: 8-5 (62%)
  • Over/Under: 7-6 (54%)

Overall

  • Straight-up: 82-50 (62%, +0%)
  • Against the Spread: 62-70 (47%, +2%)
  • Over/Under: 67-65 (51%, +1%)

13 predictors this week, up 5 from last week. Thank you to those who keep returning. We cannot tell you how much we appreciate your support. Please tell your friends!

The Cynthia Frelund Experience

2017-week9-mnf-cf

@crelund‘s crowd hit the trifecta again this week. The touchdown scored by the Packers on the untimed down at the end of the game swung the total from under to over. Both our crowd and Ms. Frelund’s crowd predicted a total right around the Vegas line, showing that they didn’t see a lot of value in it. Meanwhile, both crowds predicted a comfortable victory for the Lions compared to the spread indicating that they saw a fair bit of value.

The WotC Game of the Week

The Rams-Giants game gets the nod this week for the best crowd prediction primarily because of the value identified in the spread. Not only did the crowd predict all three results, it also predicted that the Vegas line was way under-valued, and that is exactly how the final result turned out to be. If I were being a stickler, I would have liked to have seen a bigger value identified with respect to the total, but getting a best-bet correct is pretty good in my book.

PREDICTION CROWD ACTUAL
Winner Rams Rams
Spread Rams  by 7.8 (spread was Rams by 4) Rams by 34
Over/Under 42.6 (over 42) 68

The Wabby of the Week

The one game the crowd got wrong across the board this week was Washington-Seahawks. The crowd predicted a pretty easy win for Seattle, and instead, Washington, a 7-point underdog, ended up winning outright.

PREDICTION CROWD ACTUAL
Winner Seahawks Washington
Spread Seahawks by 9.3 Washington by 3
Over/Under 49.1 (over 45) 31

Week 9 Top Performers

Here are our top performers for Week 9. Congrats everyone and thanks again for your help!

STRAIGHT-UP AGAINST THE SPREAD OVER/UNDER
B.C. (9)
E.A. (9)
C.D. (8)
C.A. (8)
C.A. (8)
B.C. (6)
E.A. (6)
E.P. (6)
G.A. (7)
B.C. (7)
C.A. (7)

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