Week 8, Game 1 – The Parrot

The Thursday night game was certainly unusual. I am keen to examine Thursday night games and the crowd’s predictions and determine whether they can act as a canary in the coal mine. Until we have a bit more of a sample size, it did make me wonder about the state of the canary going into Sunday’s games.

On the one hand, the crowd, thanks to a late break in predictions from Miami to Baltimore, got 2 of 3 correct. Additionally, it predicted the total almost exactly — 39.8 to the actual of 40. On the other hand, the crowd predicted a 1-point victory for Baltimore, so the predicted result and the actual result were very far apart.

Is this a harbinger of things to come in Week 8?

We obviously won’t know for sure until Sunday’s games are in the books, but I’m keeping an eye out on games, particularly best bets, to see if there is any correlation between when the crowd is off on Thursday night and the results on Sunday.

The theory of the wisdom of the crowd is that the relevant details are factored in by enough people to move the average accordingly. If the ability of the crowd to move the averages in the right direction can be measured on Thursday night, it may be possible to identify whether its ability will also carry over to the other games on Sunday. If so, we may be able to add a word of caution if the pattern exists.

As a reminder, the larger the crowd, the better it performs, so please tell your friends to join us!

The Game 1 CPR – 2 for 3

Correct: Over/Under, Straight-up; Incorrect: Against the Spread

As a mentioned above, the crowd picked the Ravens to win, but the performance of both teams was wildly off. The crowd predicted the over, and the game only hit on the total because of two fairly lucky (or unlucky depending on your allegiance) interception returns. Did the crowd use up all of its luck on Thursday? Let’s hope not.

2017-week8-tnf-cf

The Cynthia Frelund Experience

Cynthia Frelund’s crowd (@cfrelund) had its first 0-3 game of the year. The bad beat was the over/under which Baltimore covered all by itself thanks to a second pick-6. While an 0-3 runs counter to the theory, it should be recognized that the crowd has gotten at least one pick correct in 14 straight games.

-Chris

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