Week 7 CPR: Does Size Matter?

You bet it does! Alright, who had 8 weeks in the office pool on “When will Chris make an innuendo in a headline”? You’re a winner!

Anyway, I’m referring to crowd size, just in case you were wondering, and I bring it up to highlight the difference between Cynthia Frelund‘s crowd size and ours. In the Monday night game in Week 7, we had a crowd size of 13. The crowd got the winner correct, but missed on the spread and the total. Meanwhile, we took around 60 predictions from Ms. Frelund’s crowd, and they nailed the trifecta.

It’s pretty obvious, but it bears repeating that the larger the crowd size, the more likely the theory of the wisdom of the crowd will prove itself over time. In our crowd, 6 of the 13 predictions predicted the game would go over the Total of 48.5. However, there were two predictions in the low 30s. Why do they matter? They matter because the overs were around 50 (50, 52, and one 62). All 6 overs were almost entirely countered by one prediction of 31, and the 31 was the biggest outlier. If we had removed those two predictions, or more likely, countered them with two outliers on the Eagles side, the crowd may well have been correct.

Meanwhile, Ms. Frelund’s crowd also had only two scores in the 30s, but out of 60 predictions, the effect of the outliers were minimized as the crowd grew in size.

With that said, now is as good a time as any to ask you to  please tell your friends to join the crowd!

A Near-Hit On the Money Prediction by the Crowd!

While accuracy in predicting the actual final score is less important than predicting the value in the betting lines, it’s always fun to recognize when the crowd almost nails a game. This week, the crowd predicted Vikings 23.3-Ravens 16.8, coming within less than a point from the final score for each team.

 

CPR Week 7 Summary

• Straight-up: 11-4 (73%)
• Against the Spread: 8-7 (53%)
• Over/Under: 4-11 (27%)

Overall

• Straight-up: 63-43 (59%, +2%)
• Against the Spread: 49-57 (46%, +1%)
• Over/Under: 52-54 (49%, -4%)

16 predictors this week, up one from last week! It’s a new high! Thank you so much everyone. We cannot tell you how much we appreciate your support.

The Cynthia Frelund Experience

As mentioned above, @crelund‘s crowd hit the trifecta. Not only that, but the crowd predicted a comfortable win for the Eagles and to quote Gregg Easterbrook (who I assume is quoting something else), yea, verily it came to pass. There were two predictions that featured a double-digit Washington win, whereas there were 32 predictions featuring an Eagles double-digit win.

The WotC Game of the Week

I highlighted the crowd’s prescience with respect to the Ravens-Vikings game already, and while that was certainly interesting, the pick this week goes to the Cowboys-49ers. Normally, I wouldn’t count this because the crowd pushed on the total, but the crowd’s prediction against the spread is noteworthy. It was not a big surprise that Dallas won, but the crowd predicted a much bigger win than the spread, and that’s exactly how it played out.

PREDICTION	CROWD	ACTUAL
Winner	Cowboys	Cowboys
Spread	Cowboys -11.7 (spread was Cowboys -6)	Cowboys -40
Over/Under	47.5 (under 50)	50

The Wabby of the Week

While I imagine that most people did not predict the Chargers shutting out the Broncos or the Rams shutting out the Cardinals, it’s hard to argue that any game was more surprising than Panthers-Bears. The crowd predicted a big win for the Panthers, and it was the exact opposite.

PREDICTION	CROWD	ACTUAL
Winner	Panthers	Bears
Spread	Panthers -9.3 (spread was -3)	Bears -14
Over/Under	43 (over 40)	20

Week 7 Top Performers

R.M. is a new predictor this week and had a terrific week. Welcome!

Congrats everyone and thanks against for your help!

STRAIGHT-UP	AGAINST THE SPREAD	OVER/UNDER
R.M. (12) N.G. (10) M.R. (10) E.A. (10) K.B. (10)	N.G. (9) R.M. (8) 6 Tied at 7	M.G. (7) C.A. (7) E.A. (7) J.M. (7) N.G. (7)