We’re starting a new weekly feature: the Best Best Report. We’ll highlight the lines that the crowd diverged from most and examine the results.
Week 7 struck me as a bit unusual because there was not one game in which the crowd diverged significantly from the Total, while there were 5 spreads that’s as a gap of 6 or more. In previous weeks, the most common best bet was on the Over/Under.
Week 7 Best Bets: 3-2
The most surprising best bet result was Bears over Panthers. Not only did Chicago cover, they won going away. Of course, they scored two defensive touchdowns when the Panthers were deep in Bears territory, but a loss is a loss. The lowest predicted spread was 3, and no one in the crowd predicted the Bears to win.
The Titans were a near-hit, but their offense just didn’t show up, and they missed the cover by 3.
On the positive side, the Jets, Saints, and Cowboys all covered quite nicely. The crowd projected a big win for Dallas, and they delivered. After Week 6, I started to wonder whether we should avoid large spreads altogether, but this week the crowd said that the big spread wasn’t big enough and was proven right.
Other Best Bets
To paraphrase from The Wire, “Don’t take credit when best bets go your way unless you also want to take the blame when they don’t.” I mention that because I scout some other sites that provide best bets and wanted to mention them as a reference point for whether 3-2 is good or not. I’ll make sure to highlight their success if they outperform us.
RP-Excel – 1-5
This gentleman is really sharp and provides his picks every week to the sportsbook subreddit. He’s been performing quite well through the season.
In Week 7 however, he struggled, getting only Dallas right of his 5 Best Bets.
Vegas Insider – 0-5
Over at Vegas Insider, things went as bad as they could have. All 5 consensus picks failed to cover in the Super Contest (a contest hosted by Hilton Hotels in which competitors pick 5 games per week). The missed consensus picks are a reminder that the binary pick (cover/won’t cover) doesn’t reflect the value of wisdom of the crowd in the same way that we think Crowdsourced Scores does.
Are there any other sites you follow for best bets? Add them in the comments or send them to us at firstname.lastname@example.org. Thanks!