One of the most valuable opportunities we believe that the wisdom of the crowd offers is with the best bet. Our expectation is that when there is a significant gap between the line and the crowd prediction, they offer the best value.
The main distinction with a best bet that we’re playing with at the moment is when the delta between the crowd prediction and the line is greater than a touchdown.
So far, such a gap only exists with the over/under, and to date the crowd is performing fairly well:
- Week 1: 5-2 (and 1 push)
- Week 2: 3-2
- Week 3: 3-4
- Week 4: 2-0
- Week 5: No best bets
- Week 6: 1-3
Overall, that gives us a total of 14-11 for 56% success. With a small sample size, it’s too early to make any kind of conclusion, but it’s worth keeping an eye on. We’ll add it to the leaderboard and keep tracking them from week to week.