Week 5 Prediction Analysis – The Outliers

I did a quick study of the predictions from Week 5 and caught a couple of interesting tidbits.

On-the-Money Coincidence

This is an amazing coincidence. User M.G.’s On-the-Money prediction was the highest total of all 10 predictions. User M.R.’s On-the-Money prediction was the lowest total of all 10 predictions. While both score combinations were nice combinations of standard scores (20-17 is 2 TDs + 2 FGs vs. 2 TDs + 1 FG, for example), it is interesting that both were at an extreme end of the crowd. It’s also worth noting that the Bears “typical” result was the sum of a series of quite atypical scoring events (1 normal TD + 2-point conversion, 1 TD off a fake punt, 1 safety).

The Only One Not Wearing a Barrel

User I.R. chose the Jaguars not only to win but to pretty much blowout the Steelers with an 8-point win. The majority of the other scores predicted the Steelers to win by double-digits. I’m not sure what this means, exactly, but perhaps it’s worth taking a flyer on the extremes just to see what happens.

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