The crowd in Week 5 was below where we would have hoped, but there is a silver lining. The crowd was at 50% (7 of 14) straight-up and on the over/under, and it 57% (8 of 14) against the spread. 50% is below where we’d like to be. For our hypothesis to be proven right, we expect to be north of 60% and perhaps even a bit higher.
On the other hand, look at the trend in the chart above, we’re seeing a steady trend upward against the spread. I focus on this generally because it has the most value in the gambling world. It has the most options to play around with, including teasers and parlays. Getting consistently good predictions with the spread will be a validator of the wisdom of the crowd. As you can see in the chart, the crowd is getting better over the course of the season, and that is the key to what we are hoping to accomplish. If we consider a down week to be 50%, it would mean that our good weeks are above that, and the average over time will be where we hope.
Best Bets and One More Crazy Ending
I wanted to start trying to see which lines the crowd seems to indicate have the most value. At this point, I’m choosing the lines that have the greatest delta between the line and the crowd prediction.
In Week 5, the crowd went 2-2. They were correct on the Cardinals-Eagles under 45, Jets to win, Bills +3, and Vikings-Bears over 40. Bills and Vikings-Bears were very close to coming through, but a loss is a loss, unfortunately. And we have to mention that the under in the Cardinals-Eagles only came through because of a crazy fumble at the goal line that turned the ball over to the Eagles instead of being placed at the one. But sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good.
Two More On the Money Predictions!
Congrats to M.R. who picked the Vikings to beat the Bears 20-17, and to M.G. who picked the Packers to beat the Cowboys 35-31. Incredible!
One interesting note to consider is that both of these scores were very common (I don’t have the data for the frequency, but I believe 20-17 is one of the most common scores). Is it better to predict a common score rather than a specific score? For our purposes, being on the correct side of the line is more important than accuracy.
Still, we like to call out when you all are able to nail a score like that.
CPR Week 5 Summary
- Straight-up: 7-7 (50%)
- Against the Spread: 8-6 (57%)
- Over/Under: 7-7 (50%)
Overall
- Straight-up: 45-32 (58%)
- Against the Spread: 36-41 (47%)
- Over/Under: 43-34 (56%)
10 predictors this week! Thank you so much everyone. We cannot tell you how much we appreciate your support.
The Cynthia Frelund Experience
This was the first time since we’ve been tracking @cfrelund‘s followers that they only got 1 out of 3 correct (just the winner). They have picked the Thursday/Monday winner correctly 7 times in a row which is notable, and they have gotten 2 out of 3 right each time at least during that stretch. As we keep saying, it’s about the long view, and Cynthia’s crowd is certainly paying off over the course of the season.
The Crowd-wisest Game of the Week
I wrote a bit about the Patriots-Bucs on Thursday already, and that game seemed to be the best crowd performance of the week. Not only did the crowd get all three picks correct, they predicted the Patriots to win but the Bucs to cover.
| PREDICTION | CROWD | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|
| Winner | Patriots | Patriots |
| Spread | Patriots -2 (spread was -5.5) | Patriots -5 |
| Over/Under | 50 (under 56) | 33 |
The Wabby of the Week
The choice for Week 5 was clear: Jaguars over Steelers. I give you 20 points and the Jaguars and Monday you’re signing your house over to me wearing a barrel. The crowd missed on it as well, predicting the Steelers to cover the 7.5-point spread.
| PREDICTION | CROWD | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|
| Winner | Steelers | Jaguars |
| Spread | Steelers -9.5 (spread was -7.5) | Jaguars -21 |
| Over/Under | 47 (over 42) | 39 |
Week 5 Top Performers
There was a lot of clumping together this week as the individuals seemed to reflect the crowd pretty closely.
Congrats everyone and thanks against for your help!
| STRAIGHT-UP | AGAINST THE SPREAD | OVER/UNDER |
|---|---|---|
| J.M (8) G.A. (7) C.A. (7) M.G. (7) M.R. (7) |
G.A. (8) J.M. (8) C.A. (7) N.G. (7) I.R. (7) |
P.M. (8) C.A. (8) M.G. (7) M.R. (7) I.R. (7) |
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