2017 Week 4, Game 1 – Back to Normal?

The crowd did very well in its predictions as Week 4 starts off pretty much according to script.

If there is one thing that statistical analysis teaches us it is that one data point does not mean anything. However, the Thursday night game between the Bears and Packers went pretty much according to script, so it’ll be interesting to see how the rest of the weekend plays out.

The Game 1 CPR – 2 of 3

Correct: Straight Up, ATS; Incorrect: O/U

Across our 5 loyal predictors (thank you!), the crowd predicted an 11-point win for the Packers and a total of 41. The crowd was just one point off of the Bears’ actual total. Nice work!

Bad Beat: It’s hard to call the Bears touchdown in the fourth quarter a bad beat, but it is a little aggravating since our crowd predicted 41 points and would have been right on the money.

What is worth noting about that touchdown, though, is that it speaks to the concept of margin of safety. Our crowd predicted a total of 41 points and the Total was set at 45.5. The margin of safety there is just a field goal. We’re hoping that, over time, the crowd will be able to identify games in which the margin of safety is beyond the reach of a fluke score and track their performance over the course of the season.

For our curious readers, right now the crowd sees the biggest margin of safety for the Over/Under in:

  • 49ers-Cardinals: Under by 11 points
  • Washington-Chiefs: Under by 10 points
  • Panthers-Patriots: Over by 8 points
  • Bengals-Browns: Under by 7 points

Disagree with any of those? And leave a comment about why!

Also, please make sure to get your predictions in for Week 4!\



The Cynthia Frelund Experience

Cynthia Frelund’s (@cfrelund) crowd on Thursday nailed the trifecta and was on the money with respect to the Over/Under. The aggregation of 50 predictions resulted in an expected 10-point win for the Packers, and their 49-point total prediction was one point away from the actual.

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