2017 Week 2, Game 1 – 3-for-3 Thursday

The crowd is off to a great start this week! The crowd predicted the winner (the underdog), the spread, and the total.

On the other hand, we just had two predictions, so that’s just random chance for now, but sometimes you take your wins when they come.

One follow-up from the KC-New England game last week that I thought was worth mentioning was about decentralization and independence. I browsed the Patriots subreddit on reddit.com, and I found a thread fielding predictions for the game. All of the predictions (about 20 before I stopped counting) picked the Patriots, and the average score was 31-18. That would have been good enough for the over/under, but it was wrong straight up and against the spread.

Of course, when you have a forum of like-minded people, this is exactly what you’d expect. It would be rare for someone to post a close score let alone the Patriots losing, unless they were particularly brave (or they were a troll that enjoys tweaking a group of people). So, decentralization and independence are critical to ensuring that the aggregated predictions reflect the crowd wisdom and not a herd mentality.

-Chris

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