Wild Card CPR

Saturday: The crowd went 4-2 across the spread, game totals, and straight-up winners.

Sunday: The crowd went 5-1 across the spread, game totals, and straight-up winners.

Game Spread Total
Crowd (Odds) Actual Crowd (Odds) Actual
OAK (15.6)-HOU (17.2) -1.6 (-4) -13 32.8 (36.5) 41
DET (12.75)-SEA (27.25) -14.5 (-8) -20 40 (43) 32
MIA(13.67)-PIT (29) -15.33 (-10) -18 42.67 (46.5) 42
NYG (17)-GB (22.5) -5.5 (-4.5) -25 39.5 (44.5) 51

Overall, a 9-3 result was is quite respectable, and 3-1 against the spread is good as well.

  • The crowd did particularly well in the MIA-PIT result, predicting the game total exactly and coming within a point of each team’s actual score.

The interesting trend to point out is the DET-SEA and MIA-PIT results. In both cases, the home teams were big favorites, and the crowd not only predicted them correctly but predicted them with pretty high confidence. Specifically, the crowd predicted the favorite to outperform the spread by at least 50%. In both those games, the crowd went 6-0 across the key metrics. Conversely, in the other two wild card games, the difference between the crowd spread and the actual odds was small, and the crowd went

As we go forward, it will be interesting to consider the results in which the crowd predicts a significant over- or under-performance. Many touts use 3-star designations when they see a big opportunity, and as time goes on, we will track these types of performances to see if the crowd is particularly good (or bad) about smoking out the big opportunities in the odds.

 

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