The week 14 results are in, and the crowd performance was average this week, hitting on 50% both against the spread and against the total:
- ATS: 8-8
- Total: 8-8
- Straight-up: 10-6
The mode for the number of predictions per game was 5, and there were 4 games that received 7 predictions. The crowd did not perform significantly differently among games with more predictions than fewer.
Next-Level Crowd Wisdom
The crowd came within 1 point of predicting the score of the Bengals-Browns game and the Jets-49ers game:
- Bengals-Browns:
- Crowd prediction: 23-9
- Actual score: 23-10
- Jets-49ers:
- Crowd prediction: 24-17
- Actual score: 23-17
The crowd also predicted exactly the actual spread in the Cardinals-Dolphins game, and was within one point of the actual spread in the Saints-Bucs game.
Key Performers
| GAME | ATS | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Raiders-Chiefs | 2: C.C. | 3: C.A. |
| Steelers-Bills | 4: G.A., C.A. | 1: P.C. |
| Broncos-Titans | 5: P.C. | 10: D.B. |
| Saints-Bucs | 4: P.C. | 3: G.A. |
| Redskins-Eagles | 1: P.C., C.A. | 1: M.R., P.C. |
| Cardinals-Dolphins | On the $: B.C. | 1: P.C. |
| Chargers-Panthers | 8: D.B. | 4: P.C. |
| Bengals-Browns | 2: B.C. | 2: B.C. |
| Bears-Lions | 6: G.A. | 3: D.B., C.A. |
| Texans-Colts | 2: B.C. | On the $: P.C. |
| Vikings-Jaguars | 2: P.C. | 17: D.B. |
| Jets-49ers | 4: G.A. | 5: B.C. |
| Falcons-Rams | 10: B.C. | 2: G.A. |
| Seahawks-Packers | 21: D.B. | 3: G.A. |
| Cowboys-Giants | On the $: B.C., P.C. | 24: D.B. |
| Ravens-Patriots | 4: G.A., B.C., P.C. | 1: C.A. |
| Week 14 Lowest Combined Delta | 128: P.C. | 147: C.A. |
A couple of interesting notes from the data:
- B.C. was on the Bengals-Browns game by predicting both the spread and the total within 2 points of the actual results.
- P.C. was first in with his picks; D.B. was last in.
- Biggest out-on-a-limb prediction: G.A. who was within 2 points of the total of the highest total of the week (Falcons-Rams at 56 points)
On a personal note, I picked the Texans-Colts total within 1 but had the winner incorrect. I point that out for two reasons:
- It goes to show that the granularity of the predictions enables the wisdom of the crowd to provide greater guidance on more levels than a simple binary question of who will win/who will cover.
- Despite obsessing over this stuff to an unhealthy degree, I clearly don’t know anything.
Thanks for your continuing support!
