The week 14 results are in, and the crowd performance was average this week, hitting on 50% both against the spread and against the total:
- ATS: 8-8
- Total: 8-8
- Straight-up: 10-6
The mode for the number of predictions per game was 5, and there were 4 games that received 7 predictions. The crowd did not perform significantly differently among games with more predictions than fewer.
Next-Level Crowd Wisdom
The crowd came within 1 point of predicting the score of the Bengals-Browns game and the Jets-49ers game:
- Crowd prediction: 23-9
- Actual score: 23-10
- Crowd prediction: 24-17
- Actual score: 23-17
The crowd also predicted exactly the actual spread in the Cardinals-Dolphins game, and was within one point of the actual spread in the Saints-Bucs game.
|Raiders-Chiefs||2: C.C.||3: C.A.|
|Steelers-Bills||4: G.A., C.A.||1: P.C.|
|Broncos-Titans||5: P.C.||10: D.B.|
|Saints-Bucs||4: P.C.||3: G.A.|
|Redskins-Eagles||1: P.C., C.A.||1: M.R., P.C.|
|Cardinals-Dolphins||On the $: B.C.||1: P.C.|
|Chargers-Panthers||8: D.B.||4: P.C.|
|Bengals-Browns||2: B.C.||2: B.C.|
|Bears-Lions||6: G.A.||3: D.B., C.A.|
|Texans-Colts||2: B.C.||On the $: P.C.|
|Vikings-Jaguars||2: P.C.||17: D.B.|
|Jets-49ers||4: G.A.||5: B.C.|
|Falcons-Rams||10: B.C.||2: G.A.|
|Seahawks-Packers||21: D.B.||3: G.A.|
|Cowboys-Giants||On the $: B.C., P.C.||24: D.B.|
|Ravens-Patriots||4: G.A., B.C., P.C.||1: C.A.|
|Week 14 Lowest Combined Delta||128: P.C.||147: C.A.|
A couple of interesting notes from the data:
- B.C. was on the Bengals-Browns game by predicting both the spread and the total within 2 points of the actual results.
- P.C. was first in with his picks; D.B. was last in.
- Biggest out-on-a-limb prediction: G.A. who was within 2 points of the total of the highest total of the week (Falcons-Rams at 56 points)
On a personal note, I picked the Texans-Colts total within 1 but had the winner incorrect. I point that out for two reasons:
- It goes to show that the granularity of the predictions enables the wisdom of the crowd to provide greater guidance on more levels than a simple binary question of who will win/who will cover.
- Despite obsessing over this stuff to an unhealthy degree, I clearly don’t know anything.
Thanks for your continuing support!