Week 14 CPR

The week 14 results are in, and the crowd performance was average this week, hitting on 50% both against the spread and against the total:

  • ATS: 8-8
  • Total: 8-8
  • Straight-up: 10-6

The mode for the number of predictions per game was 5, and there were 4 games that received 7 predictions. The crowd did not perform significantly differently among games with more predictions than fewer.

Next-Level Crowd Wisdom

The crowd came within 1 point of predicting the score of the Bengals-Browns game and the Jets-49ers game:

  • Bengals-Browns:
    • Crowd prediction: 23-9
    • Actual score: 23-10
  • Jets-49ers:
    • Crowd prediction: 24-17
    • Actual score: 23-17

The crowd also predicted exactly the actual spread in the Cardinals-Dolphins game, and was within one point of the actual spread in the Saints-Bucs game.

Key Performers

GAME ATS Total
Raiders-Chiefs 2: C.C. 3: C.A.
Steelers-Bills 4: G.A., C.A. 1: P.C.
Broncos-Titans 5: P.C. 10: D.B.
Saints-Bucs 4: P.C. 3: G.A.
Redskins-Eagles 1: P.C., C.A. 1: M.R., P.C.
Cardinals-Dolphins On the $: B.C. 1: P.C.
Chargers-Panthers 8: D.B. 4: P.C.
Bengals-Browns 2: B.C. 2: B.C.
Bears-Lions 6: G.A. 3: D.B., C.A.
Texans-Colts 2: B.C. On the $: P.C.
Vikings-Jaguars 2: P.C. 17: D.B.
Jets-49ers 4: G.A. 5: B.C.
Falcons-Rams 10: B.C. 2: G.A.
Seahawks-Packers 21: D.B. 3: G.A.
Cowboys-Giants On the $: B.C., P.C. 24: D.B.
Ravens-Patriots 4: G.A., B.C., P.C.  1: C.A.
Week 14 Lowest Combined Delta 128: P.C. 147: C.A.

A couple of interesting notes from the data:

  • B.C. was on the Bengals-Browns game by predicting both the spread and the total within 2 points of the actual results.
  • P.C. was first in with his picks; D.B. was last in.
  • Biggest out-on-a-limb prediction: G.A. who was within 2 points of the total of the highest total of the week (Falcons-Rams at 56 points)

On a personal note, I picked the Texans-Colts total within 1 but had the winner incorrect. I point that out for two reasons:

  1. It goes to show that the granularity of the predictions enables the wisdom of the crowd to provide greater guidance on more levels than a simple binary question of who will win/who will cover.
  2. Despite obsessing over this stuff to an unhealthy degree, I clearly don’t know anything.

Thanks for your continuing support!

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