[Editor’s note: I’m trying to add as many acronyms into the headline as possible.]
A quick data analysis of the Raiders @ Chiefs Week 14 game:
The crowd swung over to the Raiders close to kickoff. Looking at the data, we had just five total predictions, and two came in on Thursday. One predicted a Raiders win, one predicted a Chiefs win. The difference is that the Raiders win prediction expected a 13-point victory while the Chiefs win prediction expected just a 6-point victory.
Overall, of the 5 people who predicted the game, 2 predicted the Raiders to win while 3 predicted the Chiefs, and the 13-point spread was twice as big as any other prediction.
It goes to show that volume of predictions is critical to the success of the hypothesis because if we had 1000 predictions, one outlier isn’t going to throw the average off too much.