Week 11 Crowd Performance Review (CPR)

Hi all, the first results are in, and you all have some prognosticating game!
High-level summary:
  • ATS: 8-6
  • Straight up: 10-4
  • Total: 11-3

Next Level Crowd Wisdom:

The crowd predicted within a point the Baltimore-Dallas score of 27-17, the Bears-Giants score of 22-16, and the Seahawks score of 26-15, meaning the crowd nailed both the spread and the game total.
The crowd predicted within a point the spreads for Steelers-Browns (15) and Dolphins-Rams (5).
If the WOTC theory doesn’t ultimately hold water, this is a pretty astonishing outcome, I’d say.

Key Performers (names anonymized):

Game ATS Total
NO-CAR 3: CA, MR -2: KE
BAL-DAL 0 (on the $): GA 1: MG, KE, PC
CLE-PIT 1: JL 1: CA, EP
JAC-DET 0 (on the $): PC 2: PC, GA
TEN-IND 1: MR 2: JL
BUF-CIN 1: CA, PC 12: JL
TB-KC 1: JL, MR 2: CC
CHI-NYG 0 (on the $): CA 1: JL
ARI-MIN 2: MR 6: CA
MIA-LA 0 (on the $): JL 1: JC, CC
NE-SF 1: CC 1: GA
PHI-SEA 1: AJ, SW 0 (on the $): SB, EP
GB-WAS 7: SB 14: PC
HOU-OAK 3: PC, GA 3: PC
Week 11 Lowest Combined Delta PC (81) JL (122)

Grain of Salt

While I would love it if the crowd kept up this performance, I’d say that there are a couple of factors worth noting:

  • The crowd predicted that the total would be under the Vegas total in 14 of 14 games, and the actual totals were under the Vegas total in 11 of 14 games. It seems unlikely that that trend would be followed, as in Week 10 only 6 games came in under the Vegas total.
  • Having said that, the entire premise of WOTC is that the crowd weighs various factors, and it may have been possible that the crowd leaned towards lower scores this particular weekend. Time will ultimately tell the tale.

Nice job Crowd! Please keep up your participation, and please share if you can.

Thanks in advance!

-PCSM Chris

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