Paul and Chris are back to cover the crowd’s relatively strong performance in an absolutely bonkers week of game results, and we welcome our weekly winner back to the top of the podium for the third straight week. We also enjoy some Oola Waitsburg Whiskey along the way.
Crowd Results
Week 9
Crowd score for the week: 42 points
Straight-up: 8-6
Against the Spread: 7-7
Over/Under: 6-8
Season Stats
Straight-up: 84-52 (62%)
Against the Spread: 74-60-2 (55%)
Over/Under: 69-64-1 (52%)
Weekly Winner
MikePearce with 54 points, takes his third straight week.
Paul is back and he’s brought the whiskey this time. He and Chris toast another strong performance by the crowd while enjoying the Woodinville Whiskey 100% Rye Bourbon. We update the contending teams’ authentic records to see who is still for real and who may only be pretending. Finally, we welcome back Mike for his second straight weekly championship.
Chris is flying solo this week with Elk Rider from Heritage Distillery, and he covers two awful barrel wagers, a good supercontest performance, and covers all the games and the crowd’s prediction performance. Plus, he welcomes a brand new winner to the Weekly Winner’s circle!
Just a reminder, predict the scores and you can win up to $50 per week! Predict now!
We both are riding high after some big wins by our teams – plus the Lakers winning the bubble championship – and with both our teams hitting the bye, we wanted to take a moment to see where the league stands with between the have and have-nots.
A barrel wager is a prediction in which we’re so confident we’d wager everything we own… but that if we get it wrong we’d be left wearing nothing but a barrel.
The Whiskey of the Week:
Crater Lake Straight American Rye Whiskey from Crater Lake Spirits
Distilled in Bend, OR
Distillers notes: Crater Lake Rye Whiskey hopes to revive the tradition of these small family brands that were lost during Prohibition. Crafted from 100% rye grain and pure Cascade Mountain water, the character of our rye is rich with deep toffee notes and a peppery spice that defines true American rye whiskey.
Paul – Falcons to cover the -1 spread vs the Panthers
I figured the Falcons would come out on fire with their backs against the wall, knowing a loss would drop them to 0-5 and likely cost their head coach his job
And they were playing at home against a division foe in the Panthers – even with some fans in the stands for the first time during this COVID season – even more motivation!
Couldn’t lose this one, right? RIGHT?
WRONG – Panthers dominated the game and won going away 23-16
Dan Quinn (and the GM) did get fired – guess they didn’t care that much whomp whomp
Chris – Steelers to cover the -7.5 against the Eagles
If you had told me that the Eagles would score 29 points, I definitely would have picked a different game.
My wager was saved by a career game from Chase Claypool who had 4 TDs including one with just 3 minutes to go to put the game away.
Chris is now ahead with a 2-3 record and Paul is a half-barrel behind at 1-3-1.
Crowd Results
Highlights and lowlights:
It was another feast of famine week for the crowd in week 5.
Bagels – Carb city – 5 bagels
Tampa Bay Buccaneers-Chicago Bears (3.5), total: 44.5; 19-20, Chicago Bears win, Chicago Bears cover (-1), Under 44.5 (39)
Crowd: 26.29-21.71; Tampa Bay Buccaneers win, Tampa Bay Buccaneers cover (4.57), Over 44.5 (48)
Los Angeles Rams-Washington Football Team (7), total: 46; 30-10, Los Angeles Rams win, Los Angeles Rams cover (20), Under 46 (40)
Crowd: 27.17-18.33; Los Angeles Rams win, Los Angeles Rams cover (8.83), Under 46 (45.5)
Los Angeles Chargers-New Orleans Saints (-7), total: 50; 27-30, New Orleans Saints win, Los Angeles Chargers cover (-3), Over 50 (57)
Crowd: 23.86-29.14; New Orleans Saints win, Los Angeles Chargers cover (-5.29), Over 50 (53)
Weekly Crowd Summary
Overall Crowd score for the week: 43 points
9-5 straight-up
Record: 45-18 (70%, -1%)
5-9 ATS
Record: 37-37-3 (50%, -3%)
7-7 against the total
Record: 39-33-5 (54%, -1%)
9 total predictors
Detailed Crowd Records
Here is a bit more detail about the crowd records:
Straight-up:
Favorites: 8-4 (49-20)
Underdogs: 1-1 (5-3)
Spread:
Favorites: 2-5 (16-17-3 overall)
Thread-the-needle: 2-3 (16-17 overall)
Underdog: 1-1 (5-3 overall)
Over-under:
Over: 1-2 (22-13-3)
Under: 6-5 (17-20-2)
Contest Results
MyBookie.ag Super Contest – 1.5-3.5 this week. Not the comeback we were hoping for.
Panthers +2.5 at Falcons – WIN
Rams -7.5 at Washington – WIN
Texans -5.5 vs Jaguars – WIN
Bengals +11.5 at the Ravens – LOSS
Browns +1.5 vs Colts – WIN
This was the mirror image of Week 2. In week 2 the crowd only picked 3 incorrectly and I somehow picked two for our Super Contest entry. This week, the crowd only got 5 correct, but we picked 4 for the Super Contest to bounce back from a couple of bad weeks and brings our record to .500 (12.5-12.5)
Hot Take Counter
We started last week after passing the quarter-pole of the season assessing the “authentic records” in each conference – meaning we take a look at each of the top contenders and debate whether or not they are actually a good team based on their opponents records and any really quality victories they’ve accumulated.
After just 4 games the data doesn’t reveal a whole lot as the contenders are, for the most part the “haves” while their opponents have been the “have-nots” so far with so few games played. This has certainly been true of the season so far.
But Week 5 did yield some interesting results with a couple really quality victories – most notably by the Raiders beating the Chiefs in KC, the Browns topping the Cols and the TItans just tonight with a big win over the Bills following Tennessee’s COVID outbreak drama.
We’ll start in the NFC though with my Seahawks who scored a thrilling victory on Sunday night over the Vikings on a last second TD to cap off a 94-yard drive with under 2 mins to go! This is an example of what I would consider a quality win over a team in the Vikings that is actually probably better than their record reveals. Their loss to the Seahawks drops them to a miserable 1-4 on the season, while the Seahawks move to 5-0 for the first time in franchise history.
The Vikings (and Lions), unsurprisingly have played the hardest schedule in the NFC and the 3rd toughest in the entire NFL after 5 weeks according to opponent records. And I gotta say Chris, they looked like the better team in that game against the Seahawks for much of the time – just not when it mattered most. I say all this to further illustrate that the concept of “Authentic Records” is always fully up for debate – even when it appears to be black-and-white.
Authentic Records
NFC
Seahawks
Wins – Falcons, Patriots, Cowboys, Dolphins, Vikings – Cumulative record of 5-15(Opp Win %: 38%) (+34 net points)
Courtesy of Robert Sturgul who tracks many of the experts. 23 total individual predictors this week. Our crowd’s best bets performed the best in Week 5 with 36%
Correct: Seahawks win, Under 54.5 (by mere hundredths of a point)
Incorrect: Seahawks cover – should have known better after last season!
Winner winner chicken dinner!
Here’s who came out on top on our Leaderboards in Week 5.
Prediction Score: Chris pulled away from the crowd with a solid 59 prediction points
Straight-up: 10-4
ATS: 8-6
O/U: 10-4
3 Bullseyes
Perfect Predictions (10-pointers):
Still no perfect predictions!
Stake Stacks of the Week:
Biggest Stack – Bryan Cole
Netted 15 stakes off 81 wagered which was good for an 18.5% ROI
Best ROI
Paul comes out on top in the Return-on-Investment department netting 12 stakes off only 30 wagered – good for a brisk 40% return – not too shabby!
Overall Leaderboards
Prediction score
Bryan Cole on top with 297 total points
Chris close behind with 293
Paul a distant 3rd place with 261
Stakes
Gemma Aronchick leading the ROI with an impressive 24.4% from 119 stakes wagered
Bryan Cole with the biggest overall stake stack by a mile with 51, but took him 328 stakes wagered to get there (for a still solid 15.5% ROI)
Wrap-up
Head over to stakehousesports.comto download the app and start predicting (or predict using our web app. Remember, you can win up to $50 a week in Amazon gift cards as well as a prestigious shout-out on this here program. Odds update daily, so make sure to check your predictions before gametime.
You can also follow us on Twitter using handle @houseofstakes, and on Facebook at facebook.com/stakehousesports. And you can always contact us at podcast@stakehousesports.com.
Chris flies solo this week as Paul is recovering from a well-earned vacation. Week 2 was an absolutely outstanding week for our crowd and perhaps an unbeatable individual performance by one of our competitors, but it unfortunately also featured some truly devastating injuries. I’ll cover all the results and cover what the injuries mean to the league.
A barrel wager is a prediction in which we’re so confident we’d wager everything we own… but that if we get it wrong we’d be left wearing nothing but a barrel.
The Whiskey of the Week: Bad Dog Distillery out of Arlington, Washington, about an hour north of Seattle. I’m drinking their Grandpa’s Rye and it is quite tasty. I highly recommend it.
Chris – Chiefs to cover the 9.5 at the Chargers
I said in my tweet that picking another road barrel wager might cost me my shirt, and sure enough, that’s what happened.
Paul – Rams to beat the Eagles
The Eagles might be in real trouble having dropped their first two games and looking pretty bad doing it.
So Paul takes the 1-barrel lead going into Week 3 as he is now at 1-1 while I am 0-2.
Crowd Results
Highlights and lowlights:
Bagels – No bagels again this week. Keep up the good work!
Trifectas – 7!
Detroit Lions-Green Bay Packers (-6), total: 50; 21-42, Green Bay Packers win, Green Bay Packers cover (-21), Over 50 (63)
Crowd: 20.67-30; Green Bay Packers win, Green Bay Packers cover (-9.33), Over 50 (50.67)
(Thread the needle) Atlanta Falcons-Dallas Cowboys (-3.5), total: 53.5; 39-40, Dallas Cowboys win, Atlanta Falcons cover (-1), Over 53.5 (79)
Crowd: 25.89-27.78; Dallas Cowboys win, Atlanta Falcons cover (-1.89), Over 53.5 (53.67)
San Francisco 49ers-New York Jets (7), total: 41.5; 31-13, San Francisco 49ers win, San Francisco 49ers cover (18), Over 41.5 (44)
Crowd: 28-15.56; San Francisco 49ers win, San Francisco 49ers cover (12.44), Over 41.5 (43.56)
Los Angeles Rams-Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5), total: 45.5; 37-19, Los Angeles Rams win, Los Angeles Rams cover (18), Over 45.5 (56)
Crowd: 28.33-23.33; Los Angeles Rams win, Los Angeles Rams cover (5), Over 45.5 (51.67)
Carolina Panthers-Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-8.5), total: 47; 17-31, Tampa Bay Buccaneers win, Tampa Bay Buccaneers cover (-14), Over 47 (48)
Crowd: 19.33-28.78; Tampa Bay Buccaneers win, Tampa Bay Buccaneers cover (-9.44), Over 47 (48.11)
Washington Football Team-Arizona Cardinals (-7), total: 46.5; 15-30, Arizona Cardinals win, Arizona Cardinals cover (-15), Under 46.5 (45)
Off to a nice start with a 68.75% winning percentage straight-up
All but 1 favorite won this week
Record: 26-6 (81%)
13-3 ATS
Record: 19-13 (61%)
10-6 against the total
Record: 17-15 (57%)
9 total predictors
Detailed Crowd Records
Crowd Records so far:
Straight-up:
Favorites: 15-1 (Year-to-date: 25-6)
Underdogs: 1-0 (YTD: 1-0)
Spread:
Favorites: 6-2 (7-4-1)
Thread-the-needle: 6-1 (YTD: 10-8)
Underdog: 1-0 (YTD: 2-0)
Over-under:
Over: 8-2-1 (YTD: 12-6-1)
Under: 2-3 (YTD: 5-7-1)
Contest Results
Contest Results:
MyBookie.ag Super Contest – 3-2 again this week
Rams +1 at the Eagles – Win
Vikings +3 at the Colts – Loss
Packers -6 vs. the Lions – Win
Chiefs -9.5 at the Chargers – Loss
Seahawks -4 vs the Patriots – Win
So far, we’re 6-4; Good, but we’ll need a couple of more good weeks to climb the charts
Hot Take Counter
Week 2 was just an absolutely brutal week of injuries.
In the West – Paul and my divisions – the 49ers suffered an ungodly amount of injuries: Nick Bosa and Solomon Thomas on defense and Raheem Mostert and Jimmy Garapolo on offense. In Denver, Cortland Sutton and Drew Locke both suffered injuries as well. Both of those teams seasons are now in real jeopardy barely before they begin.
Additional tragic injuries included Saquon Barkley; the Eagles had a slew of injures; Christian McCaffrey is out 4-6 weeks with an ankle injury; the Cowboys have lost almost every starting lineman; and Tyrrod Taylor got a punctured lung from the team doctor, the list goes on.
The hot take here is that I heard multiple times people connecting the lack of a preseason with the injuries. This is a ridiculous take. Injuries happen every year. The injury that took down Nick Bosa and Saquon Barkley were freak events. There is no way to connect the lack of a preseason to those injuries with any real evidence at all. All of these injuries are tragic, but to try to explain them as anything other than bad luck is ridiculous at this point. I could point to two dozen injuries off the top of my head that happened early in the season to superstars after a full preseason, so you have to stop trying to explain injuries as anything other than bad luck.
But it goes to show that, just like the NHL, NBA, and MLB, the NFL season is going to be a war of attrition, but that’s kind of how it is every year. In general, the team that both plays consistently well and has good injury luck makes it through to and usually deep into the postseason. There is no reason to think that this season will be any different.
Winner winner chicken dinner!
Here’s who came out on top on our Leaderboards in Week 2.
Prediction Score: Bryan Cole with 76 points
Straight-up: 15
ATS: 12
O/U: 11
Stake Stacks of the Week:
Split decision this week
Biggest Stack
Gemma with 29 net stakes off 61 total stakes wagered
Best ROI
Paul – 100%(!) ROI off 21 stakes wagered
Wrap-up
Head over to stakehousesports.comto download the app and start predicting (or predict using our web app. Remember, you can win up to $50 a week in Amazon gift cards as well as a prestigious shout-out on this here program. Odds update daily, so make sure to check your predictions before gametime.
You can also follow us on Twitter using handle @houseofstakes, and on Facebook at facebook.com/stakehousesports. And you can always contact us at podcast@stakehousesports.com.
This week, with just one game in the books, we’ll speculate wildly about the fates of more than a few teams and talk about who is on their way to the top and who has a steep climb ahead. We’ll also talk about what we expect in Week 2 and what unexpected things we should expect.
A barrel wager is a prediction in which we’re so confident we’d wager everything we own… but that if we get it wrong we’d be left wearing nothing but a barrel.
Whiskey: 2Bar Straight Bourbon whiskey (same as last week)… reminder it’s from 2Bar Distillery right here in smokey Seattle
Chris: Bucs to beat the Saints (cover as underdogs)
I have way more faith in Tom Brady than I probably should after watching him rip my heart out for 20 years.
At the end of the day, he had a pretty bad game, just 240 yards, 2 TDs and 2 INTs .
Not sure if it’s just newness with his team, but it was a trap from the get go, and I won’t fall for that again.
Paul: Titans to cover the -3-point spread in Denver
We’re both off to a rough start at 0-1 out of the gate
Crowd Results
Highlights and lowlights:
Bagels – No bagels this week. The crowd got at least one category correct in every game. Nice start!
Trifectas – Cowboys at Rams
Crowd Prediction: DAL 24, LAR 25 (Rams win and cover as an underdog, under 51.5)
Actual Score: DAL 17, LAR 20
Weekly Crowd Summary
Overall Crowd score for the week: 49 points
11-5 straight-up
Off to a nice start with a 68.75% winning percentage straight-up
6-9-1 ATS
The crowd had a really tough time with the spread this week
With a small crowd (only 8 total predictors), the average can be skewed pretty easily by one prediction.
Also it’s week 1 of a season like we’ve never seen, so not too surprising that the crowd wisdom struggled.
We’re starting off in a deep hole with only a 40% winning percentage ATS, but plenty of time to recover obviously
7-8-1 against the total
The over-under went the way of Goldilocks in week 1 and starts off the crowd with a not bad, but not good 46.67% winning percentage (when accounting for the push)
8 total predictors
Detailed Crowd Records
Crowd Records so far:
Straight-up:
Favorites: 10-5
Underdogs: 1-0
Spread:
Favorites: 1-2-1
Thread-the-needle: 4-7
Underdog: 1-0
Over-under:
Over: 4-4
Under: 3-4-1
Contest Results
Contest Results:
NFL Pickwatch – it’s a little too early to start talking about seeding (won’t start doing this until maybe week 7-8 or so) but we’ll keep track of the crowd’s running record and see where that would land in Pickwatch’s overall leaderboards of both public users and experts
Straight-up overall record: 11-5 (68.75%)
ATS overall record: 6-9-1 (40%)
MyBookie.ag Super Contest – 3-2 this week
Panthers +3 versus the Raiders – Loss
Seahawks -1 at the Falcons – Win
Jaguars +8 versus the Colts – Win
Cardinals +6.5 at the Niners – Win
Bucs +3.5 at the Saints – Loss
So far, we’re 3-2, which is better than the alternative.
Hot Take Counter
Expect the unexpected! Week 1 promised to be an “anyone’s best guess” kind of week, and it mostly was… there were some predictable outcomes for sure, but also some upsets that felt surprising to most… Let’s start with the mostly-expected results with the teams that seem well on their way to the top after a solid first week:
Who’s well on their way to the top
Seahawks, Packers, Ravens, Chiefs, Saints
All had very impressive performances in their Week 1 wins.
They either turned in dominant wins at home or solid wins on the road.
Who has a steep climb ahead of them
This is mostly about expectations; if you had high expectations for this season, did they take a big hit?
Colts, Browns, Lions, Eagles, Niners
They either lost to teams that were projected to be worse or performed very poorly overall.
Winner winner chicken dinner!
Here’s who came out on top on our Leaderboards in Week 1.
Prediction Score: Jordan and Chris tie with 59 total points
Straight-up: 10 for Jordan, 11 for Chris
ATS: 7 for Jordan, 9 for Chris
O/U: 10 for Jordan, 8 for Chris
Jordan hit 5 bull’s-eyes to Chris’ 3
Perfect Predictions (10-pointers):
No perfect predictions this week
Stake Stacks of the Week:
Jordan had the best week at the Stakes Table winning both the biggest stake stack and the best ROI
Biggest Stack
Jordan – 12 net stakes on 40 stakes wagered, edging out Bryan Cole
Best ROI
Jordan – Those 12 net stakes also returned a 30% return on investment
Wrap-up
Head over to stakehousesports.comto download the app and start predicting (or predict using our web app. Remember, you can win up to $50 a week in Amazon gift cards as well as a prestigious shout-out on this here program. Odds update daily, so make sure to check your predictions before gametime.
You can also follow us on Twitter using handle @houseofstakes, and on Facebook at facebook.com/stakehousesports. And you can always contact us at podcast@stakehousesports.com.
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